Latin America Economics Weekly Guessing about Guzmán, USMCA deal finalised Comments from Argentina’s President Fernández and his economy minister Martín Guzmán this week provided some relief that they don’t plan to return to ‘kirchnerismo’. But lingering uncertainty over the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new cabinet, Chile’s economic pain Recent reports suggest that Argentina President-elect Alberto Fernández, who takes office on Tuesday, has selected Martín Guzmán as his economy minister. That’s unlikely to inspire much investor... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency falls won’t stop rate cuts The Brazilian real and the Chilean peso both fell sharply over the past week, but we still think that policymakers in both counties will cut their key interest rates in December. Despite positive... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuadorian bonds, Brazilian real, Argentina and the IMF Ecuadorian bond spreads jumped this week after the failure of a government tax proposal, but we think that the market has gone too far and that today’s rebound has further to run. Brazil’s currency... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean referendum offer, Argentina bonds, Mexico rates Chilean markets rebounded today on news that congress accepted protestors’ demand that a constituent assembly play a role in writing a new constitution next year. This suggests that the crisis may... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian reforms, Chile protests, Fernández shuns IMF Fiscal reforms proposed by Brazil’s president this week are a step in the right direction, but the good news already seems to be priced. Indeed, markets took their cue from a failed oil auction... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political uncertainty reigns in Argentina and Chile The victory for Peronist Alberto Fernández in Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday provoked a small negative shock in local financial markets. And the fact that he has done little to soothe... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reform in Brazil, protests in Chile, election in Argentina A victory for Peronist candidate Alberto Fernández in this weekend’s presidential election in Argentina looks almost certain and attention is likely to focus on any early signs that he will govern as... 25th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the GM strike, austerity in Colombia The knock-on effects of the strike by GM auto workers in the US mean that the Mexican manufacturing figures due in the coming months will make for grim reading. But if GM’s deal with striking workers... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Protests in Ecuador, soft Latam inflation Intensifying anti-austerity protests in Ecuador have threatened the government’s reform agenda and caused bond spreads to widen this week. But even if the government does water down its fiscal plans... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru’s political crisis, dire surveys in Mexico The political turmoil that erupted in Peru earlier this week now seems to be fizzling out, supporting our view that it will have a limited impact on the economy. Elsewhere, we suspect that the Mexican... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer recovery, Mexico’s USMCA fears Figures published this week support our view that Brazilian household spending will strengthen over the coming quarters. But with the 2020 budget setting out further fiscal tightening, the overall... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina in pre-vote limbo, Brazil easing continues The latest data added to the evidence that Argentina’s recession deepened in Q3. Financial markets have stabilised more recently, but we doubt that the country will make any real progress in resolving... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex cash injection, resilient Brazilian consumers The decision by Mexican policymakers this week to provide support to Pemex to help it refinance its debts adds to signs that policymakers are starting to acknowledge the gravity of the problems at the... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine capital controls, Chile cuts, weakness in Brazil The introduction of capital controls in Argentina last weekend seems to have stabilised the official foreign exchange market, but it is likely to have pernicious economic effects. Moreover, while... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Scepticism surrounding Argentina’s reprofiling plan The Argentine government’s debt reprofiling plan has been greeted with some scepticism, and we think markets will remain under pressure unless investors see evidence of joined-up thinking between... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
