Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tax reform, Chilean primary elections Proposed changes to Brazil’s income tax setup, which aim to cut corporate tax but only partly offset that with an end to exemptions and the introduction of a levy on dividends, add to the view that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Unpacking Banxico’s minutes, Sinovac success? The fairly hawkish minutes to Banxico's last meeting, where it delivered a surprise 25bp hike, reaffirm our initial view that more tightening is in the pipeline. We now expect a further 125bp of hikes... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian fiscal can-kicking, Brazil electric(ity) shock Colombia’s government recently outlined plans for more moderate fiscal austerity, but this still looks implausible given the current political backdrop. Lingering fiscal risks will probably keep local... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru turmoil, Chile’s lockdown, hawks & doves Pedro Castillo’s victory in Peru’s presidential election caused local markets to tumble, but if his more moderate post-election comments are borne out in policymaking, asset prices are likely to... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico sets a high bar for hikes, new virus worries The minutes to Banxico’s latest meeting revealed that Board members are becoming more wary about the outlook for inflation, but we think that there is a high bar for a tightening cycle to begin... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution shock, Colombia’s downgrade The surprise results of the vote last weekend to elect members to Chile’s Constitutional Convention points to a much greater likelihood of rises in public spending on welfare and larger budget... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile votes, Copom’s hawks Chileans vote this weekend to elect members to a convention tasked with re-writing the constitution which, from an economic perspective, may result in a larger role of the state in the economy, higher... 14th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly COP drop, commodity price rally to the rescue? The ongoing protests against tax hikes in Colombia have increased the risks around the fiscal position and we think that local financial markets and the currency will remain on the backfoot in the... 7th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian protests, vaccine wrap-up Mass protests against tax hikes in Colombia this week have reduced the chances that reforms will be passed (at least without being watered down), putting the sovereign's investment grade rating on... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile pension withdrawals, Brazil’s budget woes The third pension withdrawal bill currently making its way through Congress in Chile would support its economic recovery in the near term, but it is another concerning sign of a gradual shift towards... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s budget imbroglio, Andean election surprises The recent fiasco with Brazil's 2021 budget, which will have to be approved next week, suggests that commitment to fiscal support is fraying. This has resulted in a higher risk premium on Brazilian... 16th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Ecuador votes, Banxico’s doves, rising virus cases Voters head to the polls in Peru and Ecuador on Sunday which could lead to a populist shift in both countries. In the former, political risks may have a growing adverse impact on the economy and... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile rate hikes on the horizon, Brazilian payrolls Chile’s central bank was notably less dovish at its meeting this week, supporting our view that the central bank will begin a tightening cycle later this year, most likely in Q4. Elsewhere, while... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
