Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s faltering recovery, Argentina’s debt crisis Data due next week are likely to show that Brazil’s economy stagnated in Q2, and the early evidence suggests that the economy remained weak at the start of Q3. A 50bp interest rate cut at the next... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina crisis wrap, limited contagion, Banxico The Argentine peso has stabilised over the past few trading days but the collapse earlier this week has made a sovereign debt default highly likely. The good news is that contagion to the rest of the... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A primer on Argentina’s primaries, Banxico to cut Argentine markets are likely to take their cue from the outcome of Sunday’s primary elections when they open next week, but we would caution that the vote doesn’t always foreshadow the presidential... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico stimulus, Colombia austerity, dovish surprises The Mexican government’s fiscal stimulus, unveiled this week, looks large enough to support an economic recovery in the second half of the year, but raises medium term fiscal risks. In contrast... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & recession fears, Brazil stimulus Mexico’s preliminary Q2 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that the economy stagnated, dodging a technical recession. But whether the growth figure is above zero or not, the key point is... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex yields to rise further, Chile to cut rates The Mexican government’s underwhelming business plan for troubled state-owned oil company, Pemex, reinforces our view that it is not willing to implement the reforms necessary to stabilise oil... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico moving towards rate cuts, Brazil’s pension bill The minutes to the last Mexican central bank meeting, published yesterday, revealed a more dovish shift on the Bank’s Board than we had expected. We now think that an interest rate cut at the next... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil: pension reform progress, Copom shifting tone Brazil’s much-vaunted pension reform passed an important legislative hurdle this week, although the bill is likely to come up against more substantial resistance in the coming weeks. In the meantime... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil pensions delay, Argentina CA, Banxico dissenter It’s been a noisy week in Brazilian politics but, while the chances of some kind of pension reform being approved this year have risen, we think the fiscal savings will be smaller than many are... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia rate cut would be a misstep, Argentina wrap Market expectations for interest rate cuts in Colombia are growing, but the country’s large current account deficit means that we think any easing would probably prove to be a policy mistake... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate cuts coming in Brazil, Argentine political jostling The weakness of the Brazilian economy and rapidly falling inflation mean we now expect an interest rate cut, and we think there is a window of opportunity for Copom to act at next week’s meeting... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s investment slump, rate cuts One factor that has been missed amid the growing debate about the weakness of Brazil’s economy is the continued slump in investment and, more worryingly, the fact that there is little prospect for a... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fernández-Fernández, Brazil reform, GDP drop Investors have largely welcomed the decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president (rather than the top job) in Argentina’s election in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico CPI boosted by Easter, dovish Andean CBs Data released this week confirming a further rise in Mexican inflation last month were eye-catching, but it looks like Easter effects were partly to blame. Elsewhere, dovish statements accompanying... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
