Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s pensions, external surpluses & Mexican oil Colombia may be about to follow Chile and Peru in allowing citizens to tap into their pension savings, which would help to shore up near-term consumer spending. But Colombia has less scope than its... 31st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexican pensions, Pemex report, Brazil’s tax reform Mexican President López Obrador’s pension reform will help to alleviate old-age poverty but, by placing the burden for higher contributions squarely with employers, it may lead to greater layoffs and... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Signs of (slow) regional recovery, Chile bond yields Data released this week underscore that Latin America’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will be among the weakest in the world. One consequence is that monetary conditions will have to... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina and Ecuador’s debt wrangles, bleak Brazil Recently proposed sovereign debt restructuring deals in Argentina and Ecuador, if they manage to get over the line, would help to shore up confidence and improve government finances over the coming... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rising unemployment, fiscal damage, USMCA A dig into the recent labour market data shows that the hit has been even worse than the recent surge in headline unemployment rates suggests. With activity only recovering gradually, there will... 3rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal paths, Brazil’s uneven recovery, Argentine GDP Latin American governments have started to outline the direction of fiscal policy from 2021, which support our relatively upbeat view on the prospects for Chile’s recovery. While parts of Brazil’s... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean QE, Peru’s crisis, Argentina’s debt snag Chile's central bank has given clear signs that it intends to launch a QE programme involving government bond purchases and, while longer-term yields have come down a long way already, there is room... 19th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil data debacle, Chile doubles down on lockdown This week’s Covid data debacle is the latest misstep by Brazil’s government, and further policy fumbles could see the bond markets take fright, worsening the public debt dynamics. Meanwhile, Chile’s... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currencies rally, easing lockdowns, IMF and Argentina Latin American currencies have outperformed this week amid the improvement in global risk appetite, but this largely seems to reflect the fact that they had fallen furthest in the first place. In the... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico set for further easing, early signs of fiscal hit Banxico’s latest Quarterly Report and the minutes to its mid-May meeting suggests that more monetary easing is on the cards. Otherwise, the April fiscal data for Brazil and Argentina show early signs... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Covid hotspots, GDP falls, austerity in Ecuador Parts of Latin America are seeing some of the sharpest rises in new coronavirus cases globally, meaning that lockdown measures – and the corresponding hit to activity – are likely to remain in place... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian politics getting messy, Chile’s FCL and bonds The unfolding political crisis in Brazil has continued to put local financial markets under pressure and it's increasingly difficult to see the political risk premium on asset prices evaporating... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina jostling with creditors, severe GDP falls This week brought further evidence that Argentina’s government and bondholders remain far apart on a restructuring deal and, unless both sides thrash out something quickly, talks could get bogged down... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Pemex troubles While the deluge of depressing economic data has grabbed the headlines in most regions, in Latin America, Brazil's political crisis has taken up the most column inches. Although the crisis has eased a... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly More pain for oil producers, Argentina hardball tactics The dramatic collapse in oil prices earlier this week will probably deepen Venezuela's shocking humanitarian crisis, and may prompt Ecuador to seek greater debt relief. Meanwhile, the Argentine... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s ‘war budget’, regional debt problems The Brazilian president’s determination to roll back lockdown measures caused him to fire his health minister this week but, with states and municipalities taking the lead of containment policies, it... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
