Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s rosy growth view, Buenos Aires bonds The minutes to Copom’s meeting last week outlined a rosy outlook for economic growth, but the dire incoming data add to the reasons to think that the monetary tightening cycle will probably be shorter... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian tax reform, vaccines and Brazil’s struggles A tax reform bill in Colombia, that will be sent to Congress next week, has slipped under the radar but this legislation could have a major bearing on the country’s sovereign investment grade rating... 19th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal worries in Brazil, Argentina’s inflation dilemma Fiscal concerns are growing in Brazil as Congress approved a bill yesterday which opens the door to more fiscal support (outside the limits of the spending cap). And pressure for higher public... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo intervenes, Chile’s success, Brazil tumbling The Mexican government’s bill to partly reverse reforms in the electricity sector threatens to open up a Pandora’s box of legal wrangling and will further damage the prospects for private investment... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico staying put, Brazil’s Petrobras mess The hit to Mexico’s financial markets during the recent rout in global bond markets adds to the reasons to think that Banxico’s easing cycle is done and dusted. Brazilian financial markets were also... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s blackouts, Argentine policymaking woes The energy crisis in Texas has led to power outages across Mexico this week, particularly in the northern manufacturing heartland, which we estimate may knock about 5% off industrial production this... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB outlook, Chile’s vaccine drive, Ecuador’s election The approval of a bill to make Brazil’s central bank (BCB) independent could, in the long term, help to reduce inflation and bond yields. In the meantime, the BCB’s governor has sought to downplay... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador votes, Brazil risks easing, Banxico to cut Sovereign debt risks in Ecuador will remain high regardless of Sunday’s election result and another debt restructuring is likely in the medium term. Even so, there could still be a window of... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s hawks, Brazil’s Speaker, truckers’ strike The minutes to the latest Brazilian central bank decision show that the hawkish contingent on Copom is larger and more vocal than we had anticipated. But the weakness of the labour market figures... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador default risks, Brazil’s political problems Comments from left-wing Ecuadorian presidential candidate, Andrés Arauz, caused ructions in the bond market this week and reinforce our view that another debt restructuring may be on the cards... 22nd January 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s new virus variant, Chile’s FX intervention Brazil’s government will begin its vaccination programme next week but, in the near term, the severity of its COVID-19 outbreak and the discovery of a more infectious variant means lockdown measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Jabs arriving as second waves hit The escalation of new COVID-19 infections and tightening of restrictions across the region, most recently in Bogotá and Buenos Aires, poses a clear downside risk to our GDP forecasts for the first... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Vaccine plans and politics, Cuba libre-lisation Policymakers across Latin America are stepping up efforts to distribute vaccines, with Mexico and Chile set to roll out the (approved) Pzifer/BioNTech jab within just a few weeks. However, most of the... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New faces at Banxico, BanRep and Brazil’s Congress Mexican President López Obrador’s third appointment to Banxico’s Board, Galia Borja Gómez, to replace Deputy Governor Javier Guzmán, could mark a gradual shift away from the central bank’s traditional... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery, two years of Amlo The recent Q3 GDP data from Brazil confirmed that its economy has suffered much less than others in Latin America, largely due to the substantial fiscal support offered by the government. One... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s current account surplus, Brazil payrolls The eye-catching swing in Mexico’s current account, from a small deficit in Q2 to a huge surplus in Q3, was driven by a much stronger rebound in goods exports than imports last quarter. While the... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
