Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s ‘reactivation’ plan, Argentina & default The economic ‘reactivation’ plan unveiled by Mexico’s president to counter the effects of the coronavirus underwhelmed. With the government reluctant to provide significant fiscal support, Banxico... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s downturn, Peru & the IMF The early data for March supported our view that Mexico’s economy is suffering a fall in output that is at least as bad as it was during the Global Financial Crisis. And the government’s reluctance to... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro behind the curve, Ecuador debt talks Confirmed cases of the coronavirus have surged to nearly 3,000 in Brazil over the past week, and the stumbling response from President Bolsonaro could deepen and prolong the economic damage. Elsewhere... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Set for sharp falls in output, more rate cuts We now think that the growing economic damage caused by the coronavirus will result in falls in GDP across Latin America. For the region as a whole, we expect that output will decline by about 2% this... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New forecasts, limited policy responses It now seems likely that the effects of the coronavirus will take a heavier toll on Latin American economies than we previously thought, so we’ve revised down our 2020 growth forecasts across the... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s slow recovery, forecast downgrades, rate cuts The Brazilian Q4 GDP data released this week confirmed that the economy fell short of expectations again in 2019 and, with the coronavirus likely to weigh on the economy over the coming months, we’ve... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil in disarray, hawkish Banxico, Ecuador’s bonds A worrying flare-up in Brazilian domestic politics, alongside mounting coronavirus fears and a widening current account deficit, is likely to keep Brazil’s financial markets and the real under... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s RRRs, Mexican optimism, Argentine debt saga Moves by Brazil’s central bank this week, including a large cut in required reserve ratios, suggest that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the faltering economic recovery. Comments from... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New BRL forecast, limited Banxico cuts, Arg. haircut The Brazilian central bank’s interventions have stabilised the real over the past 24 hours, but we think the recovery will soon run out of steam and have actually cut our end-year forecast to 4.50/$... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Buenos Aires bluff backfires, Chilean growth rebounds Argentine policymakers endured two setbacks this week, after the province of Buenos Aires failed to reprofile a $250mn capital payment and only 10% of investors accepted a sovereign debt swap worth $1... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Another rate cut in Brazil looks likely Dovish comments from Brazil’s central bank governor and the continuing shift in market expectations have prompted us to pencil in a 25bp interest rate cut next Wednesday. Chilean policymakers held... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Clues on Argentine debt, new forecasts Recent developments in Argentina, including the ongoing fiasco over Buenos Aires’ provincial debt, suggest that the national government is unlikely to reach a swift agreement with creditors to... 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s stuttering recovery, Buenos Aires troubles The softness of the latest Brazilian activity data adds to our view that the economic recovery this year will disappoint. Elsewhere, Argentina’s federal government refused to bail out the province of... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean peso hits a bump, AMLO’s oil dilemma The Chilean peso was the worst performing major EM currency this week, but there are still good reasons to think that it will appreciate by later this year. Elsewhere, the discovery of a major... 10th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Old tricks in Argentina, Mexico’s minimum wage hike Argentina’s government is resorting to old habits, having turned to deficit monetisation and drawing down the central bank’s FX reserves in recent weeks. While these unorthodox measures will help to... 3rd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina reprofiling, Brazilian beef & Mexico rates Argentina’s government has postponed the payment of around $9bn on Treasury bills until August 2020, reaffirming our view that a restructuring of local-law debts was on the cards. However, maturity... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read
