Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to benefit US consumers the most The collapse in global oil prices since June should directly benefit consumers in advanced economies by more than $200bn a year, or around 0.8% of their overall consumption. But the gains will be... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More winners than losers from further slump in oil prices The latest slump in the oil price has wreaked havoc on some emerging economies and has taken a toll on the share prices of energy firms. Nonetheless, cheaper oil is still a net positive for global GDP... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More evidence that global growth slowed in November Final manufacturing PMIs for November confirm that global growth is slowing, with activity weaker in the euro-zone, Japan and China. However, the further slump in the oil price, to around $70 per... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB to join Bank of Japan in full-blown QE Although the Fed ended its asset purchases in October, and is set to start raising policy rates in the coming months, global monetary conditions will remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ undertake... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How widespread is the threat of deflation? The drop in global commodity prices, coupled with a slowdown in global growth, will push headline inflation rates in a number of economies into negative territory. But, other than Japan, the risk of a... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slightly slower global growth Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the world economy is not growing as rapidly as it was in the third quarter. Nonetheless, the slowdown has been more gradual than many commentators have... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How would QE in the euro-zone affect the rest of the world? If and when the ECB implements “full-blown QE”, there may be some positive spillovers for the rest of the world, but they would not be large. Countries elsewhere in Europe would benefit most from... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 This weekend’s summit should end with pledges by individual G20 governments to implement reforms designed to boost growth. Even if little of this is new, the focus on growth is preferable to the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia’s troubles to have limited global fall-out Russia’s economic prospects are going from bad to worse, but barring a major escalation of geopolitical tensions, the effects beyond central and eastern Europe should be modest. The world’s largest... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there a case for another Plaza Accord? Although co-ordinated exchange rate intervention is taboo at present, it has been attempted in the past and could, in principle, be tried again in future. Admittedly, both the political and economic... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to slightly weaker growth in October Final manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that global growth may be slowing a little at the start of Q4, dragged down by the euro-zone’s chronic problems. But the US and UK continue to perform well... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions set to remain loose The likely end of the Fed’s asset purchases under QE3 does little to change the bigger picture that global monetary conditions remain very loose. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the economic threat from Ebola? The Ebola crisis is, above all, an appalling tragedy for the communities affected, but the global economic and market impact is likely to be limited. The West African economies at the centre of the... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that global growth fears are overdone Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth barely slowed in October, and thus should help to calm fears that the global economy is shuddering to a halt. However, they... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Calls for looser fiscal policy likely to go unheeded There have been renewed calls for a relaxation offiscal austerity during the past month or so,primarily aimed at the surplus countries and, inparticular, at Germany. However, Germany’sgovernment... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to have bigger implications for ECB than Fed The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
