Global Economics Update June business surveys point to steady Q2 growth Final manufacturing surveys for June, published by Markit today, do not alter our view that global growth recovered in Q2. Admittedly, the global manufacturing PMI edged back down to 51.0, but on past... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Private consumption after a currency crisis Contrary to conventional wisdom, economic recoveries following a large devaluation have not always resulted from a surge in net exports. Instead, they have often been driven by rising consumption... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global fallout of “Grexit” (revisited) If, as seems increasingly likely, Greece defaults and exits the euro-zone within the coming months, the implications for the world economy should be fairly modest. Indeed, it could even turn out to be... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unemployment outlook points to faster rate hikes in US than UK Having declined in lock-step with one another over the past three and a half years, we think the unemployment rate is likely fall more rapidly in the US than in the UK between now and the end of 2017... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth to recover, but remain uneven Preliminary business surveys for June still suggest that global growth will rebound following a weak start to the year. However, the recovery is set to remain uneven, with growth in the US (and UK)... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reviewing the lessons from past devaluations Devaluations have generally had a more positive impact on growth in economies which have a lot of spare capacity, where monetary conditions have been excessively tight and where a debt write-off is... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global financial conditions loose despite prospect of Fed hikes Yesterday’s FOMC statement and interest rate projections suggest that the US Fed is still on track to begin raising rates in September. Nevertheless, broader monetary conditions should remain highly... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would constitute a Greek default? At first sight, the concept of a sovereign default appears straightforward: a government either pays its debt, or it does not. But on closer inspection the picture is more blurred. For example, Greece... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World to benefit from long period of “just right” oil prices Crude oil prices appear to be settling in a range of $60 to $70 per barrel, which we regard as ideal (a “Goldilocks” scenario) for the global economy. Prices are high enough to ease the pressure on... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions loose despite rise in yields Although both sovereign and corporate bond yields in advanced economies rose in early May, they remain low by past standards. And with most central banks likely to maintain ultra-loose policy this... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing surveys show steady growth in May Final manufacturing surveys for May, published by Markit today, provide some reassurance that global growth should continue at a respectable pace this year. Among the advanced economies, prospects... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth still set to pick up in Q2 Preliminary PMIs for May, which were published today, support our view that global growth is likely to pick up after a soft patch at the beginning of the year. We still think activity will rebound... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rebound in bond yields unlikely to undermine global growth We can all be caught up in the mood of the moment, but talk of a “rout” in bond markets is, at best, premature. Yields are still remarkably low by past standards. While they may rise further, notably... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why aren’t consumers spending more? Consumers in advanced economies have so far opted to save, rather than spend, their oil windfall. However, strengthening labour markets, buoyant asset prices, and high consumer confidence all point to... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the rebound in oil prices a threat to the global recovery? Oil prices have recovered to levels that should still provide a major boost to consumers, while easing the pressure on producers. However, further increases could undermine the recovery in weaker... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Structural budget balances don’t tell the whole story In theory the structural budget balance, which takes account of whether an economy is running above or below its potential level, provides a useful summary of a government’s fiscal position. On this... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
