Global Economics Update Monetary indicators show US pulling ahead The rebound in lending to non-financial companies in the US supports our view that the recovery there is gathering momentum. It also contrasts with still-lacklustre credit growth in Japan and with... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too soon to write off Japan as an export powerhouse The swing in Japan’s trade balance from large surpluses to large deficits is back in the news after the March data (released yesterday) confirmed a record shortfall in the fiscal year just ended... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal drag easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously anticipated. This should provide some support for the global recovery both this year and next. However, the longer-term... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia would be the main casualty of a “gas war” There would be very few winners from any further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, but Russia still has more to lose in economic and financial terms than the West. In particular, Western European... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously forecast, which should provide some support for the global recovery in the coming year or two. But the longer-term outlook... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for global real interest rates? Continued high savings rates in emerging economies and weak investment in advanced economies suggest that real interest rates will remain low for many years. In addition, policy-makers have a strong... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growing steadily A range of business surveys published today and yesterday suggest that global manufacturing output is still growing at a reasonable pace, led by the US. However, the euro-zone’s recovery has continued... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could US energy exports help Europe? There are still significant hurdles to clear before the US becomes a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US (in contrast to North America as a whole) may never quite achieve full energy independence... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further slowdown in China, but recovery in US and euro-zone Preliminary PMIs for March suggest that the US economy is rebounding from its weather-induced soft patch and that the euro-zone is continuing its gradual recovery. However, they also provide further... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed to continue winding down QE steadily As expected, the Fed announced a further reduction in its monthly asset purchases this month meaning it remains on course to end QE in the final quarter of the year. Nonetheless, it will still be... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis is a far bigger threat to Russia than the West The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal drag still easing in most advanced economies In yesterday’s Budget, the UK government pledged to press on with its austerity plan for at least five more years. But the UK is an exception. In most advanced economies the fiscal drag is easing and... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis as likely to result in lower as higher oil prices Concerns about potential disruption to Russian energy exports initially caused oil and natural gas prices to rise as the crisis in Ukraine unfolded, and they may yet do so again. But global energy... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China concerns still look exaggerated China’s continuing economic slowdown is clearly bad news for some commodity exporters. However, the world as a whole should actually benefit from slower but better-balanced growth in China. The risk... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much could financial sanctions on Russia hurt the West? If the crisis in Ukraine escalates further, the West seems more likely to impose limited financial sanctions against Russia than to target trade in goods, especially energy. Some Russian officials... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growth steady in February Final manufacturing PMIs for February, published today, reinforce the impression that global growth remains quite strong, notwithstanding the slowdown in China and slow growth in the euro-zone. 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
