Global Economics Update Global manufacturing strengthened in November Business surveys published today suggest that the manufacturing recovery strengthened further in November, led by the US, UK and Japan. The euro-zone, however, is largely missing out, and there are... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys highlight uneven pace of growth Although the global recovery seems to be gradually gaining momentum, led by faster growth in the US, preliminary business surveys for November underline how uneven growth is. In particular, China’s... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Pace of further globalisation likely to remain sluggish Globalisation appears to have stalled since 2008, even as the world economy has recovered. This suggests that structural changes have reduced the incentives for closer integration. With little... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth rose in Q3, but recovery still uneven We estimate that world GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter, mainly thanks to a summer rebound in China and faster growth in the US and UK. Looking ahead, global growth may slow a bit as... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reform of international monetary system: off the agenda? Many commentators have attributed the sequence of crises in emerging markets since the 1980s and the global financial crisis of 2008/09 at least partly to shortcomings of the international monetary... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed still set to hike before the BoE, but neither in any hurry Despite the recent improvement in the UK labour market, the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to lag behind the US Fed in raising interest rates. Over time, this should put renewed downward pressure on... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation? We do not think the world as a whole is heading for a period of deflation. However, peripheral eurozone countries may experience an extended period of falling, or at best stable, prices. We also... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taper delay keeps monetary conditions loose With the Fed likely to keep the monetary taps flowing for even longer than previously expected, the world will be awash with liquidity for a long time to come. There are tentative signs that this is... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Recovery in global manufacturing falters in October Disappointing preliminary business surveys for October suggest that the improvement in business conditions seen over the past few months may be beginning to tail off. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US debt crisis should not stifle global recovery If the political fight over the US debt ceiling goes to the wire, or beyond, there will be negative implications for the US economy. But the impact on the rest of the world should be fairly small. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal tightening still not over, but the worst may have passed Clearly, the fiscal issues dominating the news at present are the US government shutdown and threat of default. We discuss the recent trends in the US and other advanced economies on pages 3- 4. But... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global outlook has improved, despite US fiscal impasse Headlines from the IMF meetings in Washington this week will be dominated by warnings of theconsequences of the US government defaulting on its debts and the US central bank exiting prematurelyfrom QE... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US default would be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic The markets are right to be concerned about the wider implications if the US Federal government is unable to service its debts. This would be uncharted territory and no-one can be sure exactly how... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing picks up slightly in September Final business surveys for September, published by Markit this week, suggest that global manufacturinggrowth may have accelerated a bit relative to August. But steady global growth masks significant... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary base to rise further in US and Japan Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are likely to continue with quantitative easing for many months to come, even after the Fed has begun scaling back its monthly asset purchases. With... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about the fiscal impact of higher bond yields? On their own, the increases in government bond yields since May do not pose a significant threat to the public finances of most advanced economies. Higher yields in the secondary market take a long... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
