Global Economics Update Global outlook nowhere near as bad as markets suggest Global growth is likely to remain well below its pre-crisis average for at least the next couple of years. However, while prospects for the euro-zone have gone from bad to worse, the outlook for the... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can US and euro-zone inflation really diverge? It would be unusual for inflation pressures to be building in some advanced economies and falling in others. Nonetheless, this is exactly what we expect to happen in the next year or two, as US... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How useful are the global PMIs? Although they have their drawbacks, business surveys – such as those published by Markit – are the most reliable guide to the state of global economic activity. The fact that they continue to point to... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Public finances still a major concern, despite easing austerity The IMF’s latest fiscal assessment, published yesterday, suggests that the period of acute austerity has now passed for advanced economies in aggregate. But public debt is still far too high... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from “geopolitics”? Geopolitical risks have grabbed the headlines recently and have been cited as a key factor depressing global economic prospects. However, the military conflicts which have attracted most attention... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of weaker global manufacturing in September Business surveys published today underline that growth in the euro-zone is slowing whereas the US economy remains strong. They also confirm that there has been a sharp slowdown in the UK’s... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed ending QE3 but global policy still loose Although the US Fed is set to announce the end of its asset purchases in late October, global monetary conditions should remain highly accommodative. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Cheaper oil a net positive for global growth Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth set to strengthen in Q3 A composite of the flash manufacturing PMIs released so far suggests that the pace of global growthaccelerated in the third quarter, despite more signs of weakness in the euro-zone and Japan. 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: good intentions from down under Few analysts will be waking up early this weekend to read the communiqué from the gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Cairns. It is likely to cover a lot of familiar... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade negotiations may be blocked for many more years It is twenty years since the last major multilateraltrade agreement was signed and there is no newdeal in sight. What’s more, the regionalTransatlantic and Trans-Pacific trade talks looklikely to drag... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are commodity prices signalling a global slowdown? The recent weakness in the prices of several key industrial commodities – notably oil and iron ore – hasunderstandably fuelled concerns that the world economy is on the cusp of a major downturn. But... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Scottish independence could encourage separatists worldwide From an economic point of view, it might be easier for some other regions with separatist movements to thrive as independent countries than it would be for Scotland. Few of them face the same... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are inflation expectations telling us? Measures of inflation expectations are unanimous in pointing to a growing risk of deflation in the eurozone.Meanwhile, the rise in inflation expectations in Japan suggests that the BoJ’s actions have... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK not the only country revising up its GDP figures The upward revision to its GDP figures may temporarily boost the UK’s position relative to otheradvanced economies. But other European economies and Japan will eventually make similar revisionsto... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global imbalances to remain below pre-crisis levels After narrowing abruptly in 2009, the world’s major current account imbalances rebounded between 2010 and 2012. This raised concerns that there could be a resumption of potentially destabilising... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
