Global Economics Update Three oil price scenarios from the Iraq crisis The situation in Iraq could play out in many ways. In a “good” scenario, the crisis would ease soon and there could even be some positive fallout for the region. (Our current forecast that Brent will... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rate hikes in sight but policy still very loose Market expectations for policy rates have diverged in the past few weeks. The Bank of England suggested that its first rate hike could take place sooner than previously anticipated. Expectations for... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's the tipping point for oil prices? We would be wary of assertions that there is a single “magic number” for the oil price beyond which the world economy enters a danger zone. Nonetheless, global growth has been sluggish ever since... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First rate hikes may be approaching, but policy to stay loose The growing likelihood that the first interest rate hikes will come earlier than previously anticipated will probably have far bigger implications for financial markets than for economic prospects. In... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Iraq crisis tops a long list of geopolitical risks There are good reasons to be relaxed about the global economic fall-out from the latest crisis in Iraq, including the possibility that it might actually lead to an improvement in relations between the... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Low market volatility is raising long-term risks The low levels of volatility in financial markets reflect a high degree of confidence in the ability of the authorities to prevent crises and respond to shocks, expectations that any policy changes... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to stronger global growth in Q2 Final manufacturing PMIs for May support the view that global growth is likely to pick up in Q2 after a weak start to the year, due to a rebound in the US and stabilisation in China. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Weak global growth unlikely to prevent rebound in US yields Canada continues to lead the recovery among the G7 economies after a relatively shallow recession. However, the US is only just behind, despite stumbling in Q1, and looks in better shape. Softness... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Mixed picture for global manufacturing Preliminary business surveys published today confirm that economic activity is expanding rapidly in the US and that China’s manufacturing sector has stabilised. However, the industrial recovery in the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions ease further Bond yields and interest rate expectations have declined during the past few weeks. Moreover, our measure of the monetary base in advanced economies has expanded further as the Fed and BoJ have... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate policy? In the majority of advanced economies, policymakers allow the exchange rate to be determined by the currency markets. We think they are likely to continue doing so for the foreseeable future, for... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Explaining the divergence between the G7 economies GDP data published today show Japan joining Canada, the US, Germany and France in regaining their pre-crisis levels of output. With the UK nearly there too, Italy is the clear laggard among the G7. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the US and UK housing markets affect growth? House price developments have raised concerns on both sides of the Atlantic recently. The worry is that the housing market may be overheating in the UK but cooling in the US. For now, though, we don’t... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China about to "overtake" the US? The significance of revised purchasing power parity estimates, which suggest that China’s total GDP may overtake that of the US as soon as this year, is not as great as some of the headlines imply... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing activity steady at start of Q2 Preliminary business surveys suggest that the recovery of global manufacturing continued in April. Activity in the euro-zone has picked up, but this has not eliminated the threat of deflation. Growth... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
