Global Economics Update Fears of an extended global slowdown look exaggerated The weakness of the US and China in Q1 and some softer data elsewhere have led to suggestions that a broad-based global slowdown is now underway. We think that is not the case. Growth has held up well... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still ultra-loose Global monetary conditions remain highly accommodative as the world’s major central banks have kept policy rates close to zero and some have continued with large scale asset purchases. Conditions in... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Disappointing start to Q2, but no disaster Business surveys released today suggest that the world’s four largest economies slowed in April. But global growth has not collapsed. Indeed, our flash global manufacturing PMI still points to a solid... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further slowdown in China will not stifle growth elsewhere China’s growth rate is set to slow a little further in the coming years. This will have a significant knock-on effect on some other emerging economies, but we think its overall impact on growth in the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How has investment fared since the crisis? One of the most disappointing features of advanced economies in recent years has been the weakness of investment. In part, this is because investment tends to mirror the performance of the economy as... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF: catching up with reality The IMF is making headlines with its forecast that the world economy faces a “new reality” of lower potential growth during the coming years. But arguably, it is the IMF which is catching up with... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Wealth effects in euro-zone and Japan will be small Quantitative easing in the euro-zone and Japan has provided a big boost to equity markets which in turn should bolster household wealth. But barring a major recovery in the housing market, the impact... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB trumps Bank of Japan? Although the asset purchase programme announced by the ECB this year is smaller than that announced by the Bank of Japan in 2013, the initial response of financial markets has, if anything, been... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth to recover in Q2 It is now clear that there was a sharp drop in global growth in the first quarter of 2015. But activity is likely to rebound in the second and third quarters, just as it did last year. Indeed, the... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Some encouraging signs Broad money growth in the euro-zone has accelerated to its fastest rate since April 2009, supporting other evidence that the recovery there is gaining some momentum. Meanwhile, the pick-up in broad... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth likely to pick up after weak first quarter Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that the pace of global growth in Q1 was little changed from the end of last year. But this is partly due to weather-related disruption in the US... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy should be able to cope with Fed tightening Concerns about the global impact of tighter Fed policy are likely to resurface later this year, but we think these worries are exaggerated. Even if rates are hiked, US monetary policy will remain... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB QE should be a net positive for rest of the world Concerns about the possible negative side effects for the rest of the world from QE by the ECB look overdone. Admittedly, the appreciation of other currencies against the euro will be a headwind for... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is growth in the euro-zone about to outpace that in the US? Some indicators suggest that the euro-zone economy may grow faster than the US in Q1. But this is largely because unusually severe weather has hit US activity. While the euro-zone economy has gained... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about dollar strength? The surge in the US dollar to multi-year highs has triggered many worries, including the threat to the US recovery, heightened risks of global deflation via the impact on commodity prices, and the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Real rates to stay higher in the euro-zone than in US & Japan The ECB started its quantitative easing programme this week and the US Fed is likely to begin tightening policy in June. Nonetheless, we expect real interest rates to remain higher in the euro-zone... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
