Global Economics Update What chance of progress with regional trade agreements? With the WTO talks stalled, hopes for significant progress in trade liberalisation are pinned on two large regional trade and investment pacts. As a result of renewed political pressures for an... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to a small pick-up in global growth Final manufacturing PMIs for February suggest that the pace of global growth has picked up a bit since the start of the year. The full impact of the drop in oil prices has yet to be felt and further... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global easing cycle not over yet There has been a wave of rate cuts across the world since the start of the year. And we expect monetary policy to be loosened further in a number of economies over the coming months. This should help... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risk of “Grexit” casts a shadow over global growth prospects Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that activity has picked up a bit in the euro-zone and remained solid in the US. However, the Greek crisis poses a growing threat to the outlook. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout if Greece left the euro? If Greece is forced out of the single currency there would clearly be major political and economic implications for the euro-zone itself, and we suspect there would initially be turmoil in global... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How are lower oil prices affecting inflation? The drop in global oil prices since mid-2014 will push many advanced economies into deflation, but the trough will vary considerably between economies. And while inflation should rebound rapidly in... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are consumers spending their oil windfall? Although real household incomes among net consumers have been boosted by the fall in oil prices, this has yet to translate into a surge in spending. But we still expect consumption in advanced... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 powerless to contain Greece risk With Greece once more dominating the headlines, officials from the US and elsewhere are likely to have used the G20 meeting in Istanbul to urge euro-zone governments to do all they can to prevent the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which governments gain the most from lower bond yields? If they are sustained, the recent sharp falls in government bond yields will be most helpful for the fiscal positions of southern euro-zone countries such as Italy and Spain. But along with Japan... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Partial recovery in oil prices ideal for world economy The recent pick-up in oil prices has the potential to develop into a “Goldilocks” scenario: prices high enough to keep most oil producers in business, but low enough to provide a substantial boost to... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys still painting a mixed picture Final manufacturing PMIs for January suggest that global growth may have stabilised. The outlook for the euro-zone has deteriorated and growth in China has slowed. But prospects for the US are bright... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are low freight costs signalling a wider slowdown? The latest fall in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), taking it to its lowest level since 1986, has added to concerns about the health of global demand. But the BDI is best viewed simply as a guide to the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard will lower prices hit oil producers’ budgets? The collapse in oil prices will, of course, have a big negative impact on the fiscal positions of the world’s major oil producers. But countries with large fiscal buffers, including the Gulf economies... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More to cheer than fear from “currency wars” The latest monetary easing in Europe and Asia has revived talk of “currency wars” and fuelled concerns about the impact of dollar strength on the US economy. But much of this talk seems unduly... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rate cuts and ECB QE to keep conditions loose Any doubts about whether monetary conditions would remain ultra-loose this year have been put to rest by the ECB’s decision to launch “full-blown” QE and the wave of rate cuts implemented during the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
