Global Economics Update Could US energy exports help Europe? There are still significant hurdles to clear before the US becomes a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US (in contrast to North America as a whole) may never quite achieve full energy independence... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further slowdown in China, but recovery in US and euro-zone Preliminary PMIs for March suggest that the US economy is rebounding from its weather-induced soft patch and that the euro-zone is continuing its gradual recovery. However, they also provide further... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed to continue winding down QE steadily As expected, the Fed announced a further reduction in its monthly asset purchases this month meaning it remains on course to end QE in the final quarter of the year. Nonetheless, it will still be... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis is a far bigger threat to Russia than the West The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal drag still easing in most advanced economies In yesterday’s Budget, the UK government pledged to press on with its austerity plan for at least five more years. But the UK is an exception. In most advanced economies the fiscal drag is easing and... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis as likely to result in lower as higher oil prices Concerns about potential disruption to Russian energy exports initially caused oil and natural gas prices to rise as the crisis in Ukraine unfolded, and they may yet do so again. But global energy... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China concerns still look exaggerated China’s continuing economic slowdown is clearly bad news for some commodity exporters. However, the world as a whole should actually benefit from slower but better-balanced growth in China. The risk... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much could financial sanctions on Russia hurt the West? If the crisis in Ukraine escalates further, the West seems more likely to impose limited financial sanctions against Russia than to target trade in goods, especially energy. Some Russian officials... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growth steady in February Final manufacturing PMIs for February, published today, reinforce the impression that global growth remains quite strong, notwithstanding the slowdown in China and slow growth in the euro-zone. 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about the weather? Extreme weather conditions have made the economic outlook in many countries less clear in recent months. However, experience suggests that the impact on GDP and inflation will probably turn out to be... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: “Abenomics” goes global? The G20’s bold plan to boost their collective GDP by more than 2% over the next five years contains many of the elements of the policies, collectively known as “Abenomics”, adopted by PM Abe’s... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates still expanding rapidly The monetary base in advanced economies has continued expanding in recent weeks, largely due to the asset purchase programmes of the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Indeed, the aggregate monetary base of... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing surveys point to slower growth, US excepted Preliminary business surveys for February indicate that manufacturing activity slowed further in China and that the recovery in the euro-zone has faltered. But the news from the US is more reassuring. 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Does the world need more policy coordination? This weekend’s G20 meeting may well see calls for US policy-makers in particular to take more account of the global fallout from their actions, but we expect such demands to continue to fall on deaf... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 talking shop moves to Sydney Policy-makers from some emerging economies may air their grievances about US monetary policy at next week’s G20 gathering, but there is no consensus among them on what the Fed should be doing. More... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Revamped forward guidance to help keep rates low The decisions of the Fed and the Bank of England to place less emphasis on the unemployment rate as a guide to future policy should give them more wriggle room to keep interest rates low. The changes... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
