Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Finland’s strong economic recovery continue? Finland’s economic prospects look brighter than they have for several years. So as the ECB gradually scales back its stimulus over the next few years, we think that Finland’s government bond yields... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political crisis to have modest economic effects We doubt that the German political crisis will seriously damage business or consumer confidence. And given the similarities between the major parties’ economic policies, the ultimate form of the... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic monetary policy to be unchanged until 2019 Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) appears to have reached the end of its loosening cycle. We expect the Bank to keep rates on hold until... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Italian economy finally turning a corner? This year, the Italian economy looks set to record its best performance since 2010. And we doubt that uncertainty in the run-up to next year’s general election will bring the recovery to a halt. But... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Markets underestimating Riksbank rate rises As today’s minutes show few signs that policymakers are concerned about the economy overheating, we have pushed back our forecast for a rate rise to September 2018. But we still expect rates to be... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Youth unemployment still a drag on potential growth The euro-zone’s youth unemployment rate remains worryingly high. To address this issue, this week’s Eurogroup meeting focused on plans to raise educational attainment, which is a very good place to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Should we worry about a housing crash in Norway? Recent declines in Norwegian house prices have caused some concern, but we think that the worst fears are overblown. After all, prices are falling for the “right” reasons. And we do not expect a wave... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do ECB bond re-investments mean for yields? Data released by the ECB today imply that a significant volume of its German Bunds will mature next year, which the Bank will re-invest in German assets. But we don’t think that re-investments will... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy is an exception and has come under fire for a lack of fiscal... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB “patience” to see euro fall further The ECB seems set to raise interest rates even later than we had previously assumed and we are now pencilling in the first hike for September 2019. Accordingly, we have made small downward revisions... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s election result reduces chance of fiscal boost At least four parties will be required to form a majority government following Iceland’s election, so coalition negotiations are set to take a number of months. As the left-wing parties performed... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central bank actions push bond yields down In October, a combination of rising bond yields in the US and lower bond yields at home pushed Nordic and Swiss currencies down against the dollar. Weaker exchange rates, as well as decent economic... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Spain and Catalonia? The central Government in Madrid will now attempt to take direct administrative control of Catalonia following the region’s declaration of independence. We suspect that Madrid will achieve its aim of... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update First rate rise a distant prospect as ECB extends QE While the ECB’s announcement that its asset purchase programme will now run until September 2018 and at a slower pace from January was largely in line with consensus forecast, its decision to keep the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained strong in September and point to a continued healthy pace of growth. But they remain consistent with only limited inflationary pressure, suggesting that the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlooks for Riksbank & Norges Bank policy While both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank kept policy unchanged today, the outlooks for monetary policy in the two countries are very different. We think that policy in Sweden will be tightened... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
