Europe Economics Update Youth unemployment still a drag on potential growth The euro-zone’s youth unemployment rate remains worryingly high. To address this issue, this week’s Eurogroup meeting focused on plans to raise educational attainment, which is a very good place to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Should we worry about a housing crash in Norway? Recent declines in Norwegian house prices have caused some concern, but we think that the worst fears are overblown. After all, prices are falling for the “right” reasons. And we do not expect a wave... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do ECB bond re-investments mean for yields? Data released by the ECB today imply that a significant volume of its German Bunds will mature next year, which the Bank will re-invest in German assets. But we don’t think that re-investments will... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy is an exception and has come under fire for a lack of fiscal... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB “patience” to see euro fall further The ECB seems set to raise interest rates even later than we had previously assumed and we are now pencilling in the first hike for September 2019. Accordingly, we have made small downward revisions... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s election result reduces chance of fiscal boost At least four parties will be required to form a majority government following Iceland’s election, so coalition negotiations are set to take a number of months. As the left-wing parties performed... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central bank actions push bond yields down In October, a combination of rising bond yields in the US and lower bond yields at home pushed Nordic and Swiss currencies down against the dollar. Weaker exchange rates, as well as decent economic... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Spain and Catalonia? The central Government in Madrid will now attempt to take direct administrative control of Catalonia following the region’s declaration of independence. We suspect that Madrid will achieve its aim of... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update First rate rise a distant prospect as ECB extends QE While the ECB’s announcement that its asset purchase programme will now run until September 2018 and at a slower pace from January was largely in line with consensus forecast, its decision to keep the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained strong in September and point to a continued healthy pace of growth. But they remain consistent with only limited inflationary pressure, suggesting that the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlooks for Riksbank & Norges Bank policy While both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank kept policy unchanged today, the outlooks for monetary policy in the two countries are very different. We think that policy in Sweden will be tightened... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan situation could still escalate further While Catalonia’s president avoided inflaming tensions with Madrid further in his speech yesterday, as long as the situation drags on there is likely to be some hit to business sentiment. Ultimately... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will the SNB respond to ECB tapering? The Swiss National Bank will surely welcome the likely announcement later this month by the European Central Bank that it will wind up its asset purchase programme next year. This will probably help... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland at the end of its loosening cycle Despite the increased likelihood of looser fiscal policy next year following the collapse of the government last month, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) today opted to cut interest rates. We suspect... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will other regions push for independence? After Catalonia’s vote, it seems unlikely that other Spanish regions will soon push for independence. But in Italy, later this month two regions are set to hold referendums aimed at achieving greater... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalonia: What next? Despite the “yes” vote in yesterday’s independence referendum in Catalonia, there appears to be little chance that the region will secede from Spain in the coming months. We think the most likely... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
