Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now While the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, it also acknowledged that inflation expectations are rising. We expect higher actual and expected inflation to prompt the Bank to raise... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Loosening bias gone, but tightening is some way off The ECB’s decision to remove the loosening bias from its monetary policy statement today was arguably the first step along a path of policy normalisation. But note that its balance sheet will continue... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Nordic and Swiss equities continue to struggle? After a tough start to 2018, we think that equities in the Nordic countries and Switzerland will continue to struggle over the next couple of years. But their performance will be far from uniform. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German core inflation to rise only gradually With clear signs that inflationary pressures are growing in Germany, core inflation looks set to rise. But as this will be gradual and price pressures elsewhere are subdued, it will be of little... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worrying are Trump’s tariffs for the euro-zone? The direct macroeconomic effects of President Trump’s proposed tariffs on EU exports would be very small. However, if this signals the beginning of a bigger shift towards US protectionism, followed by... 5th March 2018 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update After Italy’s election, what happens next? The lengthy political uncertainty that seems likely to follow Italy’s election is unlikely on its own to do much economic damage. But we suspect that the prospect of looser fiscal policy, higher debt... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A month to forget for Swedish krona and Swiss shares While all of the Nordic currencies and the Swiss franc depreciated against the dollar in February, weak Swedish inflation data and dovish comments from the Riksbank meant that the drop in the krona... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Euro-zone lending growth made a strong start to the year. And with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic growth... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rising Dutch house prices to support economic growth The Dutch housing market is set to perform well this year and next. And as there is a strong link between house prices and consumer spending, this should give the already strong-economy a further... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to push back guidance on rate rises In light of weak inflation data earlier this week and the dovishness of today’s Riksbank minutes, we expect the Bank to signal at April’s meeting that it will raise interest rates later than its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Make-up of ECB Council shifting to the hawkish side Luis de Guindos, who is set to replace Vítor Constâncio as the ECB’s Vice President this June, may well be less dovish than his predecessor. What’s more, his appointment makes it more likely that arch... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in Greek yields dents hopes of clean bailout exit Greece has made further encouraging progress towards exiting its bailout recently. But the latest rise in bond yields highlights its vulnerability to changes in financial market sentiment and suggests... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss franc really overvalued? Although the franc has strengthened in recent weeks, the big picture is that the currency is over 5% weaker than this time a year ago. Currency valuation measures paint a mixed picture but our view is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update No surprises from cautious Riksbank Given that the Riksbank called time on its net asset purchases just one meeting ago, it was always unlikely that the Bank would make any major policy changes today. In order to test the water ahead of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How well is Ireland's economy really performing? Ireland’s national accounts are notoriously unreliable as indicators of domestic economic activity, but alternative indicators suggest that the economy is performing well. Looking ahead, while growth... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austria to remain a star performer The outlook for Austria is bright. Policies announced by the new Government should help to support consumer spending and investment. And while we expect export growth to weaken next year, Austria... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
