Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker currencies and higher oil prices boost equities Amid escalating international trade tensions, the Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated across the board in April. Weaker exchange rates helped to give equities a boost, while the main bourses in... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB confident about inflation despite slower growth The ECB opted to leave its policy and guidance unchanged today, expressing caution about the softer tone of economic data. But it argued that growth was merely moderating from a strong pace and... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank delays interest rate rises The Riksbank now expects interest rates to remain unchanged until Q4. We think that the Bank will raise rates gradually this year and next, before adopting a faster pace of tightening in 2020. 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Swiss franc continue to weaken? The safe haven Swiss franc has depreciated steadily over the past couple of months despite geopolitical worries and rising protectionism. We think that the franc will continue to weaken as the ECB... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spanish inflation set to pick up? Despite Spain’s recent strong run of form and the prospect of higher wage growth, we suspect that core inflation will remain subdued at close to 1% this year and next. With inflation set to remain in... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How did the Nordic & Swiss economies fare in Q1? The activity surveys across the Nordics and in Switzerland generally weakened in Q1. But they were still fairly strong, so on the whole these economies seem to have performed reasonably well in the... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump concerns weigh on Nordic and Swiss markets In March, equity prices and bond yields in the Nordics and Switzerland were pushed down by concerns about US trade policy, while exchange rate movements were more mixed. Looking ahead, we expect... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and lending data add to the evidence from the activity surveys that economic growth has topped out. But with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Five Star-League alliance really be that bad? The fundamental differences between Italy’s Five Star Movement and League suggest that even if the parties agreed to form a government, they would not agree to implement either party’s more extreme... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s large-scale intervention era is drawing to a close The Swiss National Bank is likely to reduce its currency interventions further over the next couple of years as other central banks start to normalise policy and the Swiss economy is better able to... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Iceland drop its remaining capital controls? While the Central Bank of Iceland’s forecasts imply that it intends to scale back its controls on foreign investment later this year, we think that it will end up leaving them unchanged until 2020. 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The outlook for bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics The Nordic central banks are all moving towards tightening monetary policy, albeit at different speeds. We think that higher interest rates will come first in Sweden, pushing up government bond yields... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank edging towards tighter policy Following the recent reduction in its inflation target, the Norges Bank now clearly expects to begin raising interest rates this year. However, we think that it will tighten monetary policy more... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to lag ECB in policy normalisation Despite sounding a slightly more positive tone on the economy, the Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a parallel currency the answer to Italy’s problems? Introducing a parallel currency could help to stimulate Italy’s economy by providing a fiscal boost and leading to an improvement in competitiveness. That said, despite some of the eurosceptic parties... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Labour shortages won’t prompt surge in wage growth Labour shortages are a growing problem in parts of the euro-zone and are likely to persist due to mismatches of skills and barriers to relocation. But given the degree of labour market slack in the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
