Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) After rising to a five-year high in February, Swedish headline inflation is set to ease back in the coming months as energy inflation cools. But with signs that underlying price pressures are rising... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic króna to rise despite lifting of capital controls The Icelandic króna has fallen after the final step in the lifting of capital controls. But with tourism set to grow strongly, we suspect that the króna will rise and put downward pressure on import... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch election likely to result in small fiscal boost The PVV’s declining support suggests that is now even less likely to govern after the Dutch election. But the eventual governing parties will still respond to the populists by loosening fiscal policy. 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB committed to loose policy despite healthy growth The ECB today reiterated its commitment to buying assets throughout this year and keeping interest rates at current or lower levels for an extended period. While the Bank believes that downside risks... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we believe the upbeat French business surveys? The positive message from France’s business surveys suggests that economic growth will accelerate sharply in the coming months. But they probably overstated growth again in Q1, while political fears... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Euro-zone political risk to boost Nordic & Swiss currencies This month see the first of a number of key elections in the euro-zone this year. Investors are likely to become increasingly worried about the potential for anti-euro parties to enter government and... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The European Commission recently released new forecasts agreeing with our view that the peripheral economies will miss their fiscal deficit targets again this year. While bond yields dropped back in... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Next French President won’t enjoy carte blanche None of the three frontrunners in this spring’s French presidential election looks likely to be able to depend on majority support in Parliament should they be elected. This will weaken their capacity... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Win or lose, populists will have a big impact on policy There is a significant chance of populist, eurosceptic parties entering government in Italy. While populists’ chances in Germany, France and the Netherlands are more limited, they may nevertheless... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes strike dovish tone The minutes of the Riksbank’s February meeting were fairly dovish. With board members concerned about the krona’s appreciation and political risks in the euro-zone, we think that the Bank will wait... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Big movements in Icelandic markets The Icelandic króna has appreciated significantly over the past month, as the central bank reiterated its desire to reduce its foreign exchange intervention. More generally, bond yields have fallen... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish economy will continue to outperform We doubt that Prime Minister Enda Kenny’s apparently imminent resignation will have a major macroeconomic effect. More generally, the economy looks well placed to continue growing strongly. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update “Macronomics” could put France on the right track French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last night confirmed that he intends to cut overall government spending, boost public investment and overhaul the labour market. These are all long... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks still a major concern There are some tentative signs of improvement in the Italian banking sector, but it will be a very long time until the country’s lenders look healthy. So the banks will remain a risk to the economic... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a victory for Germany’s SPD reshape Europe? A German government led by the Social Democratic Party could embark on a modest fiscal stimulus at home and show more fiscal leniency to countries such as Greece. But its policies would be unlikely to... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read