Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies rise against dollar while bond yields decline The Nordic and Swiss currencies all appreciated against the US dollar in May, but performances against the euro were mixed. Following global trends, government bond yields generally declined. While... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they remain consistent with core inflation below the ECB’s near-2% target. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Buoyant euro-zone will help the SNB fight franc strength Given the improvement in the euro-zone’s political and economic outlook and the relative stance of monetary policy, we no longer expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro. But the franc... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the recovery in construction built on strong foundations? Euro-zone construction sentiment is now back above pre-crisis norms. And with low borrowing costs set to continue supporting property prices and activity, prospects for the sector are the best in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt relief set to be pushed back again Amid continued discord between the IMF and Germany, any commitment to Greek debt relief looks set to be delayed for another year. The Eurogroup has proposed new loan extensions to make the debt... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB tighten prematurely again? The ECB is edging towards ending asset purchases and raising interest rates. But there are good reasons to think that it won’t repeat the mistake that it made in 2011 of tightening policy too soon. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro The euro’s recent appreciation against the US dollar appears to reflect better prospects for euro-zone growth and has occurred despite expectations that ECB monetary policy will remain very loose... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal out of the EDP, but not out of the woods Portugal is on the brink of exiting the “corrective arm” of the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure, but it is a long way from escaping strict EU oversight of its budget. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s cross-party cabinet confirms focus on reform President Emmanuel Macron’s ministerial appointments suggest that he is serious about pushing through economic reforms. However, the challenge of the National Assembly elections looms large and it may... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Early elections in Austria revive eurosceptic threat The collapse of Austria’s ruling grand coalition has triggered an early general election, to be held in October, which could see the far-right and eurosceptic Freedom Party entering government. An... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How much slack is there in the euro-zone labour market? The recovery in the labour market is unlikely to put significant upward pressure on wage growth. Accordingly, the ECB will be very cautious when it comes to tightening policy. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland not done with rate cuts yet Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland to cut interest rates is likely to be followed by another cut later this year. Granted, strong economic growth will put pressure on domestic inflation... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Change in Riksbank target unlikely to shift policy yet The Riksbank has stated that its new inflation tolerance band will have no effect on policy. But with some Board members growing increasingly concerned about the effects of ultra-loose monetary policy... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renewed Greek recession adds to bailout risks Greece’s return to recession in Q1 has highlighted the damage done by stalled bailout negotiations and suggests that the Government’s newly-updated economic forecasts are far too optimistic. This will... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Macron succeed where others have failed? New French President Emmanuel Macron has a better chance than his predecessors of overhauling France’s sclerotic labour market and bloated public sector. But he may still have to dilute some of his... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Shift in Riksbank stance unlikely until turn of the year Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that the proponents of last month’s shock QE extension are unlikely to change their minds on the direction of monetary policy any time soon. So there is little chance... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read