Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will Norway’s election mean for the economy? Polls suggest that the Green Party might emerge from Norway’s general election, on 11th September, as “kingmaker”. In that case, confidence in the large oil sector would probably fall. But overall, we... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone peripheral economies largely continued to improve their budget positions in July, with Ireland once again making the most progress. Portugal too is faring reasonably well. But Greece’s and... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordic and Swiss bond yields decline Bond yields in most Nordic and Swiss markets fell in August, matching global trends. Currencies recorded mixed performances against the euro, with the Swiss franc depreciating while the Swedish krona... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with limited inflationary pressure in the region. Coupled with the renewed rise in the euro to above $1.20, this strengthens the case for the ECB... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland nearing the end of its loosening cycle While the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left rates unchanged today, our expectation that the króna will appreciate in the coming months means we expect one more rate cut this year, in November. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has Swedish inflation actually picked up? In recent months Swedish inflation has been artificially boosted by a new method for calculating package holiday prices. While the Riksbank will look through this particular effect, it is nevertheless... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Hard work begins for Macron as 100-day honeymoon ends After 100 days in office, French President Emmanuel Macron has already begun to reform the labour market. But a decline in his approval rating and a darker fiscal outlook will make it difficult for... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss wage growth to stay low despite unemployment falls The decline in Swiss unemployment in Q2 shows that improving economic conditions are continuing to feed through to the labour market. While we expect unemployment to fall further, we doubt that this... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election is Merkel’s to lose as campaigning kicks off With Angela Merkel’s party far ahead in the polls and pledging to pay off debt and cut taxes rather than increase investment, it looks set to be more of the same in Germany after September’s election... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Italy’s banks ready to support the economic recovery? Italy’s banking sector has seen signs of improvement this year. But it is a long way from full health, so the country’s lenders are unlikely to contribute significantly to the economic recovery any... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a worry is euroscepticism in Italy? The latest Eurobarometer survey suggested that Italy is one of the most eurosceptic members of the single currency. While there are reasons why an Italian exit from the euro over the next few years is... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss franc set for further small depreciation The Swiss franc was the worst performing major currency last month. While the franc’s depreciation has been stronger than we had anticipated, we still see it depreciating a little further against the... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The euro-zone’s efforts to put its public finances in order continued in Q1, with the region’s budget deficit shrinking to its lowest level since mid-2007. And timelier central government fiscal data... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish political scandal lowers chance of tax hikes After last week’s political scandal, Sweden’s Government needs to boost its popularity. So the Government seems likely to row back from planned tax hikes ahead of next year’s general election. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Mixed performances for Nordic and Swiss currencies After fairly big rises in yields in June, July was a quieter month for Nordic & Swiss government bonds. There was more action in the currency market, with the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona rising... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone money and credit data point to downside risks to growth. But firms and consumers have scope to fund extra spending without borrowing, and with confidence high, we remain optimistic... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read