Europe Economics Update What does the Catalan election mean for the economy? The Catalan election result seems unlikely to prompt a major push for independence any time soon, so we doubt that it will have a material economic impact. As a result, the Spanish economy looks set... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies weaken despite hawkish central banks The Swedish and Norwegian central banks delivered fairly hawkish assessments of the outlook for monetary policy this month, but that did not stop their currencies from depreciating. Meanwhile, the... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals gradual shift towards tighter policy The Riksbank’s announcement that it will end its net asset purchases this month is the beginning of a shift towards tighter monetary policy in Sweden. We think that it will ultimately raise interest... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal’s bonds outperform Italy’s again in 2018? Government bond yields in Portugal started 2017 almost twice as high as those in Italy, but look set to end the year at around the same level. While we think that yields will edge up across the region... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish ECB to normalise policy very slowly While ECB President Draghi was upbeat about the economy at today’s press conference, he stated that the desire of some Governing Council members to signal an end to asset purchases is far from a... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Norway still a long way off The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged after its meeting today and brought the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates forward to autumn 2018. We think that it will wait until... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB sits tight as franc still seen as “highly valued” The Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency markets as... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic policy rate on hold next year Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) noted that looser fiscal policy is a short-term risk to the monetary policy outlook. While we expect the... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be concerned about German house prices? The recent strength of German house price inflation is a justifiable response to increased urbanisation and a shift towards home ownership there. Given that mortgage lending growth remains moderate... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Reviewing 2017 and looking ahead to 2018 In this Watch, we evaluate the performance of Nordic and Swiss economies in 2017 and set out our key calls for next year. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries have made further progress in reducing their deficits during 2017. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Housing market concerns weigh on Swedish markets Concerns about the prospect of a house price correction were felt across Swedish markets in November, with the krona slumping, bond yields declining and equities falling. Most other Nordic and Swiss... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a “hard border” mean for Ireland? A so-called “hard border” between Ireland and the UK could hit the Irish economy pretty hard. But it would also present some opportunities, for example from UK financial firms relocating to Dublin. 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Euro-zone lending growth strengthened in October, and with the ECB set to normalise monetary policy only very slowly, we think that bank lending will continue to support the economic recovery. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish house prices to stabilise next year We think that concerns about the Swedish housing market are overblown. While house prices are likely to edge down further in the coming months, we expect them to stabilise next year. 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks are on the mend, but recovery will be slow Italy’s banks are on the mend, but it will be a very long time before they get a clean bill of health. As long as they remain weak, the economic recovery will be vulnerable to a loss of confidence in... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
