Europe Economics Update Catalan situation could still escalate further While Catalonia’s president avoided inflaming tensions with Madrid further in his speech yesterday, as long as the situation drags on there is likely to be some hit to business sentiment. Ultimately... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will the SNB respond to ECB tapering? The Swiss National Bank will surely welcome the likely announcement later this month by the European Central Bank that it will wind up its asset purchase programme next year. This will probably help... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland at the end of its loosening cycle Despite the increased likelihood of looser fiscal policy next year following the collapse of the government last month, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) today opted to cut interest rates. We suspect... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will other regions push for independence? After Catalonia’s vote, it seems unlikely that other Spanish regions will soon push for independence. But in Italy, later this month two regions are set to hold referendums aimed at achieving greater... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalonia: What next? Despite the “yes” vote in yesterday’s independence referendum in Catalonia, there appears to be little chance that the region will secede from Spain in the coming months. We think the most likely... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Government collapse triggers Icelandic market sell-off Bond yields across the Nordic and Swiss economies rose in September, largely in line with global trends as investors brought forward their expectations for monetary policy normalisation by the US Fed... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy’s budget deficit has widened and its Government plans to... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained fairly strong in August, though the data suggest that economic growth is unlikely to gather much more pace. Meanwhile, recent developments in Italy’s and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election: near-term gain, long-term pain? The German election looks set to yield a coalition of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Green Party. This will mean slightly lower taxes than under the alternative of another grand coalition... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Switzerland’s economic recovery restart? In light of the disappointing performance of the Swiss economy in the first half of the year, we have revised down our 2017 GDP forecast substantially. We still expect the economic recovery to gain... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Norway a very long way off The Norges Bank today raised its interest rate forecast, implying that it will begin tightening monetary policy mid-way through 2019. By contrast, we think that it will wait until 2020. 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Minutes show doves still rule the Riksbank roost Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that at least two of the six Board members would support an extension of the Riksbank’s QE programme beyond the current December end date. But given our forecast for... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German investment set for strong growth Despite little prospect of a pick-up in public investment in Germany following Sunday’s federal election, conditions are ripe for sharp rises in both general business investment and construction... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Portuguese bond yields be sustained? Portugal’s economic recovery is strengthening, while it has also made progress with recapitalising its banks and strengthening its fiscal position. This is reflected in the decline in government bond... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB taper affect corporate bond yields? We think that corporate bond yields will rise only gradually as the ECB tapers its asset purchases next year. After all, the economy looks set to continue performing well. And the Bank is likely to... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB language tweaks don’t signal policy shift The Swiss National Bank today acknowledged the depreciation of the franc over recent months but stressed that it was still necessary to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and maintain the... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
