Europe Economics Update Would Marine Le Pen’s margin of defeat make a difference? Assuming that Marine Le Pen loses in the second round of the French presidential election, her most radical eurosceptic and protectionist policies will gain little traction at home over the next five... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Greek government revenues fell sharply at the start of the year. While there has been a provisional deal on new reforms, the next bailout payment is still some way off. With uncertainty weighing on... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will macro-prudential tools influence monetary policy? Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have all voiced concerns about overheating in their housing markets. In Switzerland, macro-prudential policies have already served to cool house price... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sharp currency depreciations in Norway and Iceland Market movements across the Nordic and Swiss economies were fairly limited in March. The main exceptions were in the currency market, with both the Norwegian krone and Icelandic króna recording sharp... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the banks help or hinder Portugal’s recovery? There are some positive signs for Portugal’s banks, suggesting that they have become less of a risk to the public finances. But a meaningful recovery in lending over the next few years seems unlikely... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB break its forward guidance? The ECB’s forward guidance about asset purchases and an extended period of low interest rates need not prevent it from starting to normalise policy should the inflation outlook so warrant. But it... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlook for monetary policy in Sweden and Norway Underlying Swedish inflation is set to pick up further and means that the Riksbank’s ultra-loose policy is no longer justified. Conversely, the outlook for Norwegian inflation calls for an interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish growth to slow regardless of politics Spain’s political situation is fragile and we cannot rule out a snap election being called this year. But regardless of the politics, deteriorating economic fundamentals mean that economic growth will... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation still set to dampen real spending growth this year The annual rate of euro-zone inflation may be nearing a peak, but its effects on consumer spending growth have yet to come. With nominal wage gains unlikely to offset higher prices, we still see... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but fight against franc will need to continue The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was as expected given the recent rise in inflation. But with euro-zone political developments likely to put upward pressure on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch ado about nothing? The next Dutch government is likely to be a centre-right coalition with a broadly similar stance towards the EU as before and a slightly looser fiscal policy. But the balance of power in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Dutch election a litmus test for the rest of Europe? We suspect that a better-than-expected result for eurosceptic and populist parties in today’s Dutch general election would have little direct effect on support for eurosceptic parties elsewhere. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates still set to be cut later this year The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep policy unchanged after the lifting of capital controls was unsurprising. The recent drop in the króna reduces the need for the CBI to cut interest rates... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are things finally looking up for Portugal? Portugal’s anti-austerity Government has continued to implement economic reforms and cut its budget deficit, which reduces the risk of sanctions from the EU. But major challenges still lie ahead. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read