Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is below-target inflation in Norway a problem? The Norges Bank’s latest projections suggest that it is unwilling, or unable, to loosen policy by enough to hit its inflation target. This will weigh on economic growth over the coming years, and... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone money and credit data point to continued steady economic growth. But problems in Italian banks have seen lending there continue to contract. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian bank rescue raises long-term concerns While the state aid granted to two regional Italian lenders over the weekend has reduced the risks to the Italian economy in the near term, it shows that the so-called “doom loop” between the banking... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal continue to outperform Italy? Portugal’s economy has outperformed Italy’s in recent years as easing austerity, progress with labour reforms and improvements in competitiveness have all borne fruit. We expect this to continue. 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway rate cut off the table, but a long way from rate hikes The Norges Bank revised up its forecast for interest rates this year, so a cut now looks unlikely. But while the Bank expects to raise its policy rate in 2019, we think that it will be unchanged until... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Macron’s 7% unemployment rate achievable? While we think that President Macron’s labour reform plans will be broadly successful, his target for France’s unemployment rate to fall to 7% by 2022 still seems overly ambitious. With his planned... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little scope for German spending boost from lower savings Structural factors have pushed the German household saving rate higher in recent years. So we doubt that a fall in the saving rate will see consumer spending growth gain much pace in the months ahead. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy The results of the French parliamentary elections revealing that Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche has achieved a huge majority bode well for the French economy and for EU relations. But he... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis averted for another year The deal at yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting should see Greece receive the next tranche of its bailout soon, allowing it to meet July’s debt repayments with a little time and cash to spare. Debt relief... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Cautious SNB keeps policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold and pledge continued currency intervention if needed reflected the fact that inflation is still very low. With price pressures likely... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the UK election mean for the euro-zone? The UK election is unlikely to have major adverse near-term effects on the euro-zone as damage to UK demand from political uncertainty may be offset by looser fiscal policy. A softer Brexit could... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland There is little sign that the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) expects to reduce interest rates further after today’s cut, but we think there is scope for a further appreciation of the króna to weigh on... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Should we worry about a new government in Finland? The collapse of Finland’s government will not throw the country’s economic reforms off track. We still expect the economy to grow by about 2% this year. And while the renewed political instability in... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do political developments mean for Italy’s economy? On the face of it, the Five Star Movement’s poor showing in recent local elections bodes well for pro-euro parties and Italy’s economy. However, the chance of an early election has fallen, so... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy Results of the first round of French parliamentary elections suggesting that Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche will achieve a huge majority bode well for the French economy and for EU... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB eases loosening bias, but rate hikes a distant prospect The ECB removed its reference to possible interest rate cuts today, judging that the threat of deflation has passed. But it is still far from convinced that inflation is on a sustained path towards... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
