China Economics Weekly Consumers are playing their part China’s post-lockdown recovery is a lot less patchy than generally thought. Today’s detailed GDP figures suggest that, apart from in pockets like tourism and restaurants, the retail sector is... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly A milestone in financial decoupling Decoupling has entered a new phase over the past year. Where China previously was trying to temper US efforts to decouple, in key areas it now appears to want the same. This week a turning point was... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Changing views on China, export demand peaking While China’s Communist Party was celebrating its achievements at its official centenary this week, a global survey revealed a sharp decline in popular enthusiasm for economic engagement with China in... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Port congestion easing, border reopening timeline Disruption at China’s busiest container terminal has added to the strains on global trade in recent weeks. But the situation may now be turning a corner, with signs that port congestion is starting to... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Inflation unlikely to rise any further this year While the prospect of rising inflation is a key global concern, in China disinflationary pressures have been building and we are revising down our forecast for consumer price inflation over the second... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC’s turn to target currency manipulators After regulators last week pledged to root speculators out from the domestic commodity market, this week it was the turn of the People’s Bank to tackle manipulation in the currency market, which it... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs After a slow start, China’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout is now one of the world’s fastest and is currently responsible for over half of daily inoculations globally. At this pace, China could catch up... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC is right to be relaxed about inflation Producer prices are rising rapidly as the extraordinary surge in global demand for consumer durables during the pandemic has led to bottlenecks in supply. But the People’s Bank is right to not be too... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tourism recovering, Phase One deal remains a dud Domestic tourists made a record number of trips over the recent Labour Day holiday. But in a sign that consumers are still holding back, daily tourism spending was still a fifth below pre-pandemic... 7th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Population pressures, supply constraints biting There is mounting evidence that supply constraints are feeding price pressures across manufacturing in China. Producer price inflation is about to jump to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, the statistics... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly New growth forecasts, service sector divergence We’ve nudged down our China growth forecast for 2021 in response to incoming data suggesting that momentum slowed more than we’d expected in the early part of this year. Our expectations for the rest... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors reassess state support Investors had previously shrugged off governance problems at Huarong, China’s largest distressed debt manager. The assumption had always been that the firm’s ties to the Ministry of Finance would... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer boycotts will accelerate decoupling Consumer boycotts of foreign firms in China are becoming more frequent and harder for the firms involved to deflect. Government restriction on multinationals’ foreign activities are also becoming more... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read