China Economics Weekly Banks given more room to lend, housing vouchers Bank lending has been weak recently but that could soon change. Quantitative controls on loans were loosened further in Q2, giving banks room to ramp up lending as credit demand rebounds following... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly A return to the streets, stimulus still being drip-fed Consumers have returned to the streets, with daily data showing that mobility is now largely back to normal. But it will be a while before they fully reopen their wallets. A lack of substantial policy... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target unattainable, shipping disruption China’s statistics office is adept at massaging GDP data. But with many of the indicators that feed into GDP showing year-on-year contractions in April and May, even it won’t be able to deliver... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant rehabilitation or tech rectification? If the Ant IPO is back on, as some are reporting, this is less likely to signal that the regulatory crackdown is being rolled back than that regulators feel they have successfully brought the formerly... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Show us the money The State Council has expanded on its call for policy support for the economy to be stepped up. But nothing has been done about the funding strains faced by local governments who bear much of the... 2nd June 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Goods are piling up at Chinese factories Soaring inventories of finished goods in China suggest that, contrary to most expectations, recent lockdowns are likely to prove disinflationary domestically. The glut of supply in China is likely to... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly How quickly can activity rebound? China’s previous COVID outbreaks offer a few clues to how quickly the economy will rebound this time. Even if further large-scale lockdowns are avoided, activity is unlikely to have recovered in full... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Testing, testing, testing The outlines of a new, more stringent zero-COVID approach are emerging in China, in the wake of the failure to control infections in Shanghai. If successful, there should be less supply chain... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough? Officials are turning less hostile toward tech firms. But the economic drag from the regulatory crackdown, which we think has knocked 0.3%-pts off of annual GDP growth, is unlikely to dissipate... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lack of finance undermines Xi’s infrastructure push Today’s Politburo meeting repeated Xi’s recent call for a step-up in infrastructure construction. A shift is already underway on the ground, with spending accelerating. But the scope for even faster... 29th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC will embrace the renminbi’s decline The People’s Bank appears to have been pushing against the renminbi’s strength for a while. This week, finally, the market responded. The PBOC doesn’t have much tolerance for sharp market moves and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Logistics under pressure but virus situation improving China’s economy is still reeling from the impact of COVID-19 restrictions. Although the hit remains most severe in services, disruption to trucking has added pressure to industrial supply chains in... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market revival delayed by outbreak Prior to the latest COVID-19 outbreak, China’s housing market had appeared on the cusp of a rebound. But movement restrictions and weaker consumer confidence have since caused home sales to slump... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services suffering Incoming data over recent days have been worse than generally expected and probably still don’t fully reflect the extent of current economic disruption in China. The week has ended with some positive... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Omicron continues to take a toll Virus cases remain elevated and although authorities appear to be identifying and isolating a rising share of infections, new outbreaks are still popping up in parts of the country. The resulting... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Liu reassures market, lockdowns to stay targeted Liu He's promise this week to be more considerate to market investors in how new policies are communicated and implemented doesn't constitute a fundamental change of direction. Meanwhile, the risk of... 18th March 2022 · 5 mins read