China Economics Weekly Export outlook still strong despite virus flare-ups China’s goods exports probably can’t keep growing at their incredibly-rapid recent rates for long, not least because infection flare-ups in Europe and the US will take some steam out of the recoveries... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Households spending more, RMB gains to continue Consumer spending continued to strengthen during the Golden Week holiday, helping to dispel some concerns about the lopsided nature of China’s recovery and providing a further tailwind today to the... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending boon, property developer caution Holiday spending during China’s ongoing “Golden Week” should ease concerns that lacklustre consumption will cause the economic recovery to stall. The property sector remains, in our view, a bigger... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bonds to rally in the coming years FTSE Russell yesterday announced that it will include China in its World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The resulting shift in passive funds could more than double foreign inflows into Chinese... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror The economic data out of China this week beat expectations and point to a further rebound. The strength is still concentrated in industry and construction but that’s not a constraint on near-term... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade surplus near all-time global high Data released this week confirm that China is on course to run one of the biggest annual current account surpluses ever recorded relative to global GDP, despite the global economic slump. Pandemic... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Strength of property investment unlikely to last China’s property sector rebounded rapidly from the COVID-19 downturn as sales were lifted by a revival of pent-up demand. But with property controls still tight, the rise in sales is likely to fizzle... 4th September 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Low oil prices are supporting the recovery China’s economy is benefiting from a favourable combination of strong demand at home but weak global demand for energy and low oil prices. As a result, the current account surplus has jumped to a five... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus is once again proving costly for banks The return on assets of Chinese banks fell to a record low last quarter after they heeded policymakers’ calls to step up lending and sacrifice profits in order to lower borrowing costs for struggling... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery Firms are adding to their fleets of trucks at the fastest pace in a decade, suggesting that they expect growth in industry to accelerate well above trend in the next few quarters. One near-term prop... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT? Financial decoupling between the US and China could be far more disruptive to both China and the global economy than anything the Trump administration has attempted so far. But much of what is... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s “new development model” is more of the same In the face of growing tensions with much of the world, Xi Jinping this week called for a “new development model” that allows China’s economy to sustain rapid growth with less dependence on other... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly The upside to China’s wary consumers Household consumption in China remained stubbornly weak in Q2 despite the rapid rebound in GDP. But this isn’t a reason to be overly concerned about the immediate outlook. With fiscal stimulus still... 17th July 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble Chinese equites surged this week, after state media talked up the value of a stock market rally in countering economic headwinds. Output may benefit in the short-run – at its peak the 2015 rally was... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly The cost of going it “alone” Recent developments in Hong Kong and along the border with India are putting further strain on China’s relations with the rest of the world and accelerating the process of decoupling. This will make... 3rd July 2020 · 8 mins read
