China Economics Weekly Monetary easing cycle nearing an end With fiscal stimulus ramping up and economic recovery well underway, the PBOC appears to see less of a need to encourage stronger private borrowing. Broad credit growth still looks set to accelerate... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus ramp-up points to state-led recovery Government borrowing is ramping up as China begins to implement a stimulus package whose fiscal component is as large as that in 2009. There are other similarities too: despite pledges to direct more... 5th June 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery The early data for April suggest that the post-COVID-19 recovery remains slow and uneven. Policymakers are stepping up fiscal stimulus in response, which looks set to drive a sharp pick-up in... 30th April 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly True unemployment at least double official figure The leadership has elevated “ensuring employment” to the top of its list of priorities. Unemployment is still low officially but the true rate is probably double the official figure. 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Downturn pushing China towards zero lower bound The decline in China’s Q1 GDP made history but was not a big surprise. The pace of contraction looks set to ease this quarter but with external headwinds intensifying and the labour market in a... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Expect the first negative GDP print in over 40 years China’s release next week of data for Q1 GDP will be perhaps the most remarkable of modern history. The statistics office often stands accused of smoothing fluctuations in GDP but we think it is... 9th April 2020 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery The first monthly data points for March add to broader evidence that activity began to bounce back last month. But the recovery already appears to be losing momentum and has been unevenly spread, with... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Opening up, shutting down, infection data doubts China has been relaxing some of its last controls on domestic movement this week while also pulling down the shutters on arrivals from abroad. That highlights how the epicentre of the coronavirus... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus China’s government will only lower its 2020 GDP target marginally, to around 5% according to media reports. Given the sharp contraction in output this quarter, this would require implausibly strong... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC mulling deposit rate cut to shore up banks Recent monetary easing has squeezed bank margins, causing concern among policymakers. The People’s Bank has hinted that, in order to take some pressure off the banks and give them room to lower... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Bond yields at decade lows, RMB defies growth slump China’s economy is on a slow march back to normality. In coming days, the trade, credit and inflation data will shine new light on the disruption of recent weeks. In financial markets, rising... 6th March 2020 · 8 mins read
