China Economics Weekly Expect the first negative GDP print in over 40 years China’s release next week of data for Q1 GDP will be perhaps the most remarkable of modern history. The statistics office often stands accused of smoothing fluctuations in GDP but we think it is... 9th April 2020 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery The first monthly data points for March add to broader evidence that activity began to bounce back last month. But the recovery already appears to be losing momentum and has been unevenly spread, with... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Opening up, shutting down, infection data doubts China has been relaxing some of its last controls on domestic movement this week while also pulling down the shutters on arrivals from abroad. That highlights how the epicentre of the coronavirus... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus China’s government will only lower its 2020 GDP target marginally, to around 5% according to media reports. Given the sharp contraction in output this quarter, this would require implausibly strong... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC mulling deposit rate cut to shore up banks Recent monetary easing has squeezed bank margins, causing concern among policymakers. The People’s Bank has hinted that, in order to take some pressure off the banks and give them room to lower... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Bond yields at decade lows, RMB defies growth slump China’s economy is on a slow march back to normality. In coming days, the trade, credit and inflation data will shine new light on the disruption of recent weeks. In financial markets, rising... 6th March 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Global virus spread adds to downside risks for China The extended disruption from efforts to contain COVID-19 means that China’s economy is already in the midst of the deepest contraction in at least two decades. And the potential hit to foreign demand... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evidence of Q1 contraction continues to mount New data this week on electricity usage in one of China’s largest provinces suggest that activity in the construction, wholesale and retail, and industrial sectors has been running at half the usual... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Economy still on hold three weeks after Lunar NY Two weeks after China was originally due to return to work after the Lunar New Year holiday, economic activity remains extremely subdued. There are some signs that popular concerns about the outbreak... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Coronavirus spread, tariff rollbacks The next few days will be crucial in determining whether efforts to limit the spread of the coronavirus within China have worked and whether workplaces across the country will be allowed to reopen... 7th February 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly A dreadful month The new coronavirus was first identified exactly a month ago. Initially, it was compared to SARS as a benchmark for how bad the outbreak could be. SARS now looks like a best-case scenario. We have... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Rapid spread of coronavirus adds to downside risks There is no longer any doubt that the coronavirus outbreak will hurt China’s economy in Q1. While the impact should be short-lived and subsequently reversed, the public and official responses to the... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Inflation to drop back sharply, bond rally not over While the spike in oil prices following the killing of Iranian General Soleimani proved short-lived, oil prices still look set to rise this year on the back of a recovery in demand. But the impact of... 10th January 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hukou reforms & property, RRR cut, loan repricing The interest rates on virtually all outstanding loans issued by China’s banks will be renegotiated over the next few months as the PBOC implements the most consequential phase of its efforts to... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Defaults hurt credit allocation, banks kept afloat China is ending the year with financial strains once again dominating the headline. The sharp rise in defaults by private firms is cementing creditors’ preference for lending to state firms and so... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read