China Economics Weekly Too much of a good thing? The R&D intensity of China’s economy continued to rise last year and is converging toward the levels of advanced economies. But that’s not necessarily a good thing for a country with much lower... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some relief for property developers This week’s cut to policy rates is one of a succession of recent moves designed to stabilize residential property sales. Developers have also been given a little more breathing room in terms of their... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Omicron arrives It is too soon to conclude that Omicron will swamp China’s efforts to suppress COVID. But the policy of “dynamic clearing” is facing a severe test. Data due over the coming week will reveal the... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Latest virus hit smaller than in Q3 but Omicron looms China is recording the highest number of new COVID infections since the initial lockdown in Q1 2020. But the current outbreak has not spread as widely across the country as the Delta wave last summer... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Two years on Two years since some cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan, China is facing a convergence of economic headwinds. The PBOC is treading very carefully but with the leadership... 17th December 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Easing signalled for 2022 The past week, culminating in the conclusion today of the economic planning meeting for 2022, leaves little doubt that policy support is being stepped up. There’s even a chance, we think, of a policy... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year-end policy bash to strike a more dovish tone The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing is likely to signal that policy is turning more supportive. But loosening will be measured, and growth over coming quarters will still slow. 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Capacity constraints put a ceiling on export outlook In the long-run, the global spread of highly-transmissible coronavirus strains may make China’s zero-COVID stance untenable but the immediate response to concerns about B.1.1.529 is more likely to be... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Outbreak quashed, land auction rules eased Local authorities in China appear to be becoming more adept at bringing Covid outbreaks under control with relatively little disruption to economic activity. Meanwhile, this week’s easing of land... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policymakers are stressing developers not markets This week’s sell-off in Chinese high-yield dollar bonds is not a good measure of the stress facing Chinese developers. These bonds account for less than a tenth of developer debt. Their key creditors... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Outbreak threatens growth, food panic overdone Our downbeat growth forecasts are largely based on expectations for a deepening downturn in construction and industry. But a worsening COVID-19 outbreak means the biggest near-term threat could be a... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi’s strength carries echoes of 2015 The renminbi has risen 10% in trade-weighted terms since the middle of last year, reaching its strongest level in over five years this week. The last time we witnessed such rapid gains, they... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy outlook, new forecasts, property tax Ahead of the publication of our quarterly China Economics Outlook next week, we consider how Evergrande's woes, power cuts and supply shortages have shifted prospects for the economy. Our answer... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property downturn deepens, triggering easing Supply-side disruptions mean there is an unusual amount of uncertainty about China’s recent economic performance. But one thing that’s clear is that the property sector downturn has gathered pace in... 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Power cuts and inflation, zero-COVID hobbling tourism The coming week may shine a light on the global impact of China’s power shortages. There are reports of them triggering sharp falls in shipping costs. The producer price data on Thursday will show... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Power supply steady, heavy industry under pressure Early data suggest that recent electricity rationing may be the result of power companies being unable to keep up with the strength of demand, rather than a substantial pullback in electricity supply... 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
