China Economics Weekly Goods are piling up at Chinese factories Soaring inventories of finished goods in China suggest that, contrary to most expectations, recent lockdowns are likely to prove disinflationary domestically. The glut of supply in China is likely to... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly How quickly can activity rebound? China’s previous COVID outbreaks offer a few clues to how quickly the economy will rebound this time. Even if further large-scale lockdowns are avoided, activity is unlikely to have recovered in full... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Testing, testing, testing The outlines of a new, more stringent zero-COVID approach are emerging in China, in the wake of the failure to control infections in Shanghai. If successful, there should be less supply chain... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough? Officials are turning less hostile toward tech firms. But the economic drag from the regulatory crackdown, which we think has knocked 0.3%-pts off of annual GDP growth, is unlikely to dissipate... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lack of finance undermines Xi’s infrastructure push Today’s Politburo meeting repeated Xi’s recent call for a step-up in infrastructure construction. A shift is already underway on the ground, with spending accelerating. But the scope for even faster... 29th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC will embrace the renminbi’s decline The People’s Bank appears to have been pushing against the renminbi’s strength for a while. This week, finally, the market responded. The PBOC doesn’t have much tolerance for sharp market moves and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Logistics under pressure but virus situation improving China’s economy is still reeling from the impact of COVID-19 restrictions. Although the hit remains most severe in services, disruption to trucking has added pressure to industrial supply chains in... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market revival delayed by outbreak Prior to the latest COVID-19 outbreak, China’s housing market had appeared on the cusp of a rebound. But movement restrictions and weaker consumer confidence have since caused home sales to slump... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services suffering Incoming data over recent days have been worse than generally expected and probably still don’t fully reflect the extent of current economic disruption in China. The week has ended with some positive... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Omicron continues to take a toll Virus cases remain elevated and although authorities appear to be identifying and isolating a rising share of infections, new outbreaks are still popping up in parts of the country. The resulting... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Liu reassures market, lockdowns to stay targeted Liu He's promise this week to be more considerate to market investors in how new policies are communicated and implemented doesn't constitute a fundamental change of direction. Meanwhile, the risk of... 18th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The near-term outlook has deteriorated The National People’s Congress concluded today with a pledge of policy support for the ailing economy from Premier Li. The next dose could come next week, when the PBOC has a chance to lower its MLF... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong underlines risks of zero-COVID opening Mainland China and Hong Kong both have high vaccination rates in aggregate. But they share a common weakness in having few of their elderly vaccinated. A surge in deaths in Hong Kong is now... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect from the NPC Some tips for interpreting the economic plans that will be revealed at the National People’s Congress next Saturday: If you want to know what officials think about the outlook, focus less on the real... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Green shoots in the housing market Local-level support for the property market is stepping up a gear, with down-payment requirements being eased in a handful of cities. This follows national-level efforts to push down mortgage rates... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending disappoints, vaccines pay dividends In some respects, activities around the Lunar New Year holiday were closer to normal this year than last, but tourism spending was still depressed. We expect further monetary easing to be announced in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
