China Economics Weekly Already past the worst? New COVID infections across much of China may already be dropping back just as quickly as they surged only a month ago. Shops and streets are getting busier. A full return to normality is probably... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly The most dangerous weeks of the pandemic in China China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic. The authorities are making almost no efforts now to slow the spread of infections and, with the migration ahead of Lunar New Year getting... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer demand push revived, COVID debacle, chips The Central Economic Work Conference ended today with a pledge of more support for consumers and property developers. That’s the second major policy document with a focus on consumers this week. Might... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal support, boost for property, vaccination stepping up Next week’s Economic Work Conference will set the tone for policy for the coming year. Early signs are that fiscal support will be expanded while constraints on property developers will be further... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccination targets point to mid-2023 reopening goal The recent easing of virus restrictions in many cities reflects efforts to streamline the zero-COVID policy rather than abandon it in the near-term. By setting concrete targets for elderly vaccination... 2nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Patching up relations with the West, help for developers There has been a palpable easing of strains between China and the West since the cordial meeting last week between Xi and Biden. But the root causes of distrust haven’t changed – if anything, recent... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Preparing for reopening will take time Officials have made clear that they are sticking with the zero-COVID policy for now. There are some signs that they are becoming more serious about removing the main roadblocks to reopening –... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lighter-touch version of zero-COVID is a gamble The easing of containment measures announced today is aimed at reducing the economic cost of the zero-COVID policy, not moving away from it. But it risks making it harder for local governments to keep... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the reopening rumours Rumours about an imminent move away from zero-COVID have lifted Chinese markets this week but there is no concrete evidence yet of a shift. And even if officials are now drawing up an exit strategy... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Infrastructure push only a stopgap solution A jump in infrastructure investment can take much of the credit for the better-than-expected Q3 GDP figures. We think fiscal stimulus will result in a further ramp-up in spending next year. But China... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Kicking away the ladder The Party Congress has slowed the leadership’s response to the semiconductor export controls introduced by the Biden administration two weeks ago. But the Ministry of Industry and Information... 21st October 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly The reshuffle of Xi’s economic team The Party Congress begins on Sunday. There’s little doubt that it will mark the start of a third term in power for Xi Jinping. What’s less clear is whether retirement norms will still apply to other... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly UN win highlights China’s “fracturing” vulnerabilities China had a diplomatic win at the UN this week, but its success also shines a light on its vulnerabilities as the global economy fractures into US and China-centred blocs. China has more supporters in... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate easing, ominous signs for exporters Officials are giving banks more room to lower mortgage rates by relaxing regulatory controls. We doubt this will be sufficient to put a floor under home sales. But alongside efforts to prop up the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Developers finish more homes, renminbi unanchored In trying to anchor the renminbi to the dollar, the PBOC has now put itself at risk of repeating the mistakes that led to a messy sell-off in 2015. Meanwhile, there are early signs that efforts to... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Weak RMB inhibits easing, consumption takes a hit The PBOC has been trying to offer support to the economy this week without lowering its policy rates, but a desire to stabilise the exchange rate constrains what it can do. That’s a problem for the... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
