China Economics Weekly Throwing in the towel on PBOC rate hikes Policy normalisation has run a long way already in China. Interbank rates have returned to near pre-pandemic levels. Credit growth has slowed. And a PBOC survey published yesterday signals that last... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Acrimony in Alaska, Made in China, fiscal tightening, The acrimonious meeting in Alaska underlines that a new US administration has not led to a reset of US-China relations. China’s leadership has long appeared set on a course for industrial decoupling... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plan signals property construction is set to slow The Five-Year Plan includes numerous targets and projections for how China’s economy will develop over the next few years. Among them are a couple that highlight growing structural constraints on... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials strike hawkish tone ahead of the NPC The National People’s Congress has just kicked off in Beijing. We will publish an Update with our initial analysis once the key details from the meeting have been made public. Recent comments by... 5th March 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect at the NPC The National People’s Congress – the stage on which China's government sets out its economic plans – starts on Friday. We expect the budget to confirm the withdrawal of post-COVID fiscal support. It’s... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policymaker silence, festival spending, the Ox & GDP Years of the Ox aren't typically bullish for China's economy. 2021 will be different, but recent inaction by both the Finance Ministry and People’s Bank points to a withdrawal of policy support that... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout will accelerate China appears once again to have successfully crushed the recent COVID-19 flare-up. Its vaccination campaign is looking less impressive and the original target for inoculations by Lunar New Year... 11th February 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant capitulates, officials chip away at hukou barriers The government is taking some further steps to boost labour market mobility by making it easier for migrants to settle and access healthcare in many of China’s cities. That will ease one constraint on... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal taps turned off, Spring Festival travel subdued A rush to meet annual spending targets pushed China’s quarterly budget deficit to the second largest on record at the end of 2020. But the government has now turned off the taps. Local government bond... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC takes aim at digital payments duopoly The People’s Bank this week issued draft guidelines that would force China’s mobile payments giants to cede ground to their rivals or face being broken up. The argument that this is needed to foster... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Less travel, more work this Lunar New Year With new virus cases at their highest in 10 months, local governments and firms are discouraging workers from travelling during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. While this will deal a blow to... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Virus disruptions linger but vaccines deliver This week’s lockdown of Shijiazhuang, a city of 11 million, is a reminder that sporadic flare-ups of COVID-19 are still imposing an economic cost on China. Domestic passenger travel in particular... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech crackdown, demand-side reform The recent Politburo meeting underscored that reining in the tech sector's has become a key priority for China’s leadership. The economic consequences of this crackdown are far from clear-cut. But... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year-end leadership forum to flag hawkish policy shift China’s leadership will gather in the coming days for the annual Central Economic Work Conference. With the economy now back on track, we think discussions will focus on the recent surge in debt... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Financial decoupling meets financial coupling Chinese firms are coming under increasing pressure to delist from US equity markets. But the broader trend is towards tighter financial ties between China and the rest of the world. The financial... 4th December 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccines will jab holes in exporters’ sails The widespread rollout of vaccines in major developed economies is likely to take the wind out of the COVID-boom in online spending that has powered the extraordinary recent strength of China’s... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read