China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Growth in broad credit weakened further in November, suggesting that policymakers will need to increase support over the coming months in order to stabilise economic growth. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & Inflation (Nov.) Export growth slowed last month but this reflects unflattering base effects and softer global growth rather than US tariffs. A bigger concern is the sharp drop in import growth which, coupled with... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Nov.) Speculation that the People’s Bank (PBOC) stepped up intervention last month to stabilise the exchange rate doesn’t appear to be borne out by the data on its FX reserves. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The latest survey data suggest that conditions in industry remained broadly stable last month. But we still think that growth will slow during the next few quarters, even though the immediate threat... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Nov.) Downbeat official PMI readings for November suggest that growth remains under pressure, with signs that the recent uptick in construction activity is fizzling out as local governments pare back... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed in Q3 to a two-year low in year-on-year terms, a trend we think will continue over the quarters ahead as headwinds from tightening monetary conditions and rising global... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October activity and spending data were mostly better than anticipated. But despite an uptick in industrial output and investment, we doubt that economic growth has bottomed out just yet. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The pace of borrowing hit fresh lows in October, after a push by local governments to shore up infrastructure spending failed to have a lasting impact. Policymakers will therefore need to take further... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation remained elevated in October. But with core inflation subdued and producer price inflation easing, we doubt policymakers will be too concerned. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) Chinese export growth picked up slightly last month, with no sign yet that US tariffs have had a major negative impact. Import growth also picked up, driven largely by growth in underlying volumes. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The PBOC appears to have intervened directly in the foreign exchange market again in October. But its intervention remains small in scale and seems calibrated to slow the renminbi’s fall rather than... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The latest survey data, while not as bad as some feared, still paint a fairly downbeat picture. We expect the economy to weaken further in the coming months, triggering additional policy easing. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Oct.) Downbeat official PMI readings for October suggest that while policy support is having some effect on construction activity, it has yet to fully offset broader downward pressure on the rest of the... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.) Official GDP growth slowed last quarter consistent with broader evidence that the economy is cooling. There are some early signs in the September data that policy support is starting to gain traction... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) A fresh slowdown in broad credit growth in September adds to the downside risks to growth and is likely to trigger further policy easing over the coming months. 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Policymakers are likely to look through the latest pick-up in consumer price inflation and focus instead on evidence of cooling economic momentum, including slower core inflation and weaker factory... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
