China Data Response GDP (Q2) & Activity & Spending (Jun.) Official GDP growth edged down last month but, unsurprisingly, remained rapid and in line with the government targets. Debates about the true pace of growth aside, it’s noteworthy that whereas in... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A further slowdown in lending in June adds downside risks to economic growth and is likely to trigger a policy response. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Chinese exports held up well on the eve of US tariffs. But weaker-than-expected import figures point to a renewed slowdown in domestic demand heading into the second half of the year. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Today’s inflation data show little change in price pressures last month beyond a mild boost from higher oil prices. Tariffs may start to inject some additional volatility into the price data soon but... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jun.) The latest PMI readings suggest that the economy lost some momentum last month. With credit growth still cooling and US tariffs imminent, we expect further weakness ahead. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Today’s activity data were a mixed bag as industrial production and real estate activity picked up but retail sales and investment spending cooled last month. We think that activity will slow over the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) The value of new loans issued by Chinese banks edged down last month. But this often happens in May. More importantly, broad credit growth slowed further and is now the weakest in over a decade. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) Import growth was surprisingly strong last month. This probably reflects a continued recovery in industrial activity following the easing of winter pollution controls and is unlikely to be sustained... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (May) The latest foreign exchange reserves data are consistent with very little PBOC action in the FX markets. This suggests that the recent resilience of the renminbi relative to other EM currencies... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) The latest PMIs suggest that China continued to sustain rapid growth last month. But the surveys don’t tell the full story and have mostly defied a slowdown in the hard data during the past year. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (May) Today’s strong set of official PMIs tell a reassuring story about current growth momentum and suggest that April’s recovery may have extended into May. However, we will have to wait for more reliable... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Industrial activity was buoyed last month by the easing of pollution controls. But there are signs in the rest of today’s data that the broader economy is losing momentum. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The slowdown in broad credit growth that has been underway since mid-2016 moderated last month but a turnaround is unlikely for some time yet, meaning that weaker lending will remain a headwind to... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. We think GDP growth has now peaked though and will slow over the coming months as headwinds from tightening... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Today’s inflation data point to easing price pressures, consistent with our view that both consumer and producer price inflation are already past their peaks for the current economic cycle. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) The latest trade data suggest that domestic demand is holding up fairly well. In contrast, despite a seasonal uptick in export growth, foreign demand for Chinese goods appears to have softened, with... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
