China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The February trade data are downbeat, even accounting for seasonal distortions. Tariffs are weighing on shipments to the US. But broader weakness in global demand means that, even if Trump and Xi... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Feb.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) does not appear to have intervened substantially in FX markets in February, suggesting that the renminbi is not facing much downward pressure at present. However, with the... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The unofficial PMI rebounded last month, after slumping in January. Looking through this volatility, the survey data remain consistent with our expectation for a further slowdown in economic growth in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Feb.) The latest survey data suggest that manufacturing output growth slowed last month, possibly to its weakest level since 2009. Construction activity also appears to have softened, raising questions over... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) The jump in bank lending last month was mostly seasonal. But after months of declines, broad credit growth did edge up in January, hinting that monetary easing may be starting to gain more traction. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Below-consensus inflation in January suggests that demand remained sluggish at the start of the year. Factory gate prices are now falling, which is likely to feed through to weaker profit growth among... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) The January trade data were much stronger than anticipated but seasonal volatility caused by annual shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year make it difficult to get a good grip on underlying trends... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have intervened little in FX markets last month, suggesting that the renminbi is not facing much downward pressure at present. However, with the economy likely to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The slump in the Caixin manufacturing PMI reading in January to its lowest since February 2016 paints a much bleaker picture than the official PMI reading released yesterday. With the headwinds from... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) While the official manufacturing PMI didn’t weaken any further in January, it still suggests that the economy lost momentum at the start of the year. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Growth edged down last quarter, with the slowdown on the official GDP figures corroborated by other data. Conditions improved somewhat in December, but we expect the uptick in industrial output and... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Policymakers have been making a coordinated effort today to provide reassurance that more stimulus is in the pipeline. But today’s data showing growth of outstanding credit still at its slowest pace... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Export growth dropped more than anticipated in December as global growth softened and the drag from US tariffs intensified. Import growth also fell sharply in the face of cooling domestic demand. We... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Following the drop back in oil prices, consumer price inflation returned below 2% last month. Meanwhile, producer prices are now on the brink of returning to deflation territory. Slowing inflation is... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Dec.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have sold only a small amount of foreign exchange last month, suggesting that the renminbi has faced little downward pressure recently. 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Investment and consumption both appear to have cooled last month, with softer foreign demand also weighing on industrial production. We think further weakness is on the horizon. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
