China Data Response Trade (Oct.) The contraction in both exports and imports eased more than expected last month. But even if the “Phase One” US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The official foreign exchange reserves figures suggest that the PBOC continued to refrain from direct FX intervention last month as renminbi depreciation pressure subsided. This points to a decline in... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) A divergence in the official and unofficial PMIs makes it unusually difficult to gauge how the economy performed at the start of Q4. On balance, growth appears to have picked up last month but... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 preliminary) Hong Kong’s first recession in a decade is shaping up to be deeper than anticipated. And while last quarter will probably mark the trough in q/q growth, the city’s economy will continue to struggle. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Oct.) The official PMIs fell by more than expected this month, reinforcing our view that the improvement at the end of Q3 didn’t mark the start of a sustained recovery. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) An uptick in activity in September didn’t avert a slowdown last quarter. And policy support is unlikely to prevent cooling external demand and slowing construction from resulting in more weakness... 18th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Credit growth failed to pick up in September despite recent policy easing. And while we expect policymakers to take more aggressive action before long, the impact of any easing on credit growth and... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation continued accelerating last month but core inflation held stable at a low level. With demand-side pressures on prices set to remain subdued in the coming months, we think that the... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) The contraction in both exports and imports deepened last month. Import growth should start to recover soon. But with the mini US-China trade deal unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds facing... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) China’s FX reserves declined unexpectedly last month but officials claim this was due to valuation effects and muted outflow pressures suggest that the PBOC will have felt little urgency to run down... 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) China’s manufacturing PMIs jumped this month, indicating that activity got a break from the ongoing slowdown. But this is unlikely to mark the start of a turnaround. There are signs of a slowdown in... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) After worsening across the board in July, growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales fell even further last month. And with a strong rebound unlikely any time soon, we... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Monetary easing has so far failed to generate much of a pick-up in credit growth, which remained unchanged last month. This should push policymakers to take further action. 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Weakening demand dragged producer price inflation further into negative territory last month while surging pork prices kept consumer price inflation elevated. With demand-side pressures on prices... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Aug.) Exports fell last month as global demand softened and US tariffs continued to take their toll. Imports improved thanks to strong infrastructure spending but remain consistent with a further economic... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (August) The latest survey data suggest that exports have continued to struggle but that factory activity was propped up by stronger infrastructure spending. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
