China Data Response

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

The continued weakness in China’s activity surveys reinforces our view that economic growth is likely to soften this quarter and increases the likelihood of additional policy easing in the coming...

3rd June 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Official PMIs (May)

The latest survey data suggest that economic growth in China has yet to bottom out. Given the growing headwinds from US tariffs and signs that the labour market may be faltering, we expect...

31st May 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q1)

Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed again in the first quarter of the year, and the economy is now expanding at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. With exports likely to remain in the...

17th May 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Activity & Spending (Apr.)

The April activity and spending data were weaker than anticipated across the board, confirming our doubts about the durability of March’s strength and increasing the likelihood of further policy...

15th May 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)

The slowdown in credit growth last month underlines the need for further monetary policy easing in order to keep credit expanding fast enough to provide a floor to economic growth.

9th May 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.)

Both official measures of inflation picked up last month but this was mostly due to supply-side factors and therefore shouldn’t be interpreted as clear evidence of stronger domestic demand.

9th May 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Trade (Apr.)

Export growth last month was disappointing, with Trump’s latest tariff threats adding to the downside risks ahead. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices helped April’s import values beat expectations...

8th May 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

PMIs (Apr.)

After jumping in March, both manufacturing PMIs fell back in April, disappointing hopes for a further recovery and reinforcing our view that there are still some downside risks to near-term activity.

30th April 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.)

China’s economy stabilised in Q1 thanks to a marked improvement in activity last month. Admittedly, the latest surge in industrial production is hard to take at face value and is likely to be...

17th April 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.)

Broad credit growth rose in March, but is still consistent with further economic weakness in the near term. We think that the People’s Bank will loosen policy further over coming months.

12th April 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Trade (Mar.)

Stronger-than-anticipated exports hint at an uptick in foreign demand but disappointing imports suggest that domestic demand may not be holding up as well as hoped.

12th April 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)

Higher food and oil prices pushed up headline inflation last month but broader price pressures remained subdued and we don’t anticipate an imminent turnaround in underlying inflation.

11th April 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.)

The strength of the latest survey data suggests that growth in China may already be bottoming out. But there are still reasons to be cautious about the near-term outlook.

1st April 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.)

The latest data suggest that economic conditions remained weak at the start of 2019, with developers paring back property construction and infrastructure spending underwhelming.

14th March 2019 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.)

The sharp drop in lending last month reversed much of the jump in January. With the trajectory of credit growth still pointing to further economic weakness, we think the People’s Bank will need to...

11th March 2019 · 1 min read