China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) The latest drop in consumer price inflation is largely seasonal and should reverse this month. The same cannot be said for the decline in producer price inflation, which points to a further easing in... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Trade growth at the start of 2018 beat expectations by a wide margin. But seasonal volatility means that we won’t get a clear reading on the pace of shipments in and out of China until next month. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves data suggest that the People’s Bank has not been directly intervening to limit the renminbi’s recent gains against the dollar. That partly reflects the fact that the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The survey data suggest that output growth held steady at the start of 2018, with disruptions from the anti-pollution campaign starting to ease. But signs in the data of a slight softening in demand... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) While the survey data have yet to fully reflect the slowdown in growth shown on our China Activity Proxy, the latest decline in the official PMI does add weight to the view that the economy is cooling... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q4) & Activity & Spending (Dec.) Economic growth in China probably slowed last quarter, even though the official figures paint a picture of continued stability. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The slowdown in broad credit growth that has been underway since mid-2016 continued last month. Policymakers may welcome this progress toward deleveraging for now. But we think the drag on economic... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Export growth declined slightly last month but remained healthy. In contrast, import growth slowed sharply, raising questions over the state of domestic demand. Divergent prospects for growth in China... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation ended 2017 on a softer note, with a decline in both producer price inflation and non-food consumer price inflation. This is consistent with our view that cooling price pressures will open... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) The PMIs ended 2017 on a strong note. But if the past couple of quarters are any guide, this may not translate into an improvement in the hard data. And even if economic activity did pick up last... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Stronger exports and an uptick in investment failed to prevent a further slowdown in industrial output growth last month as disruptions to factory activity from the pollution crackdown continued to... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) New lending jumped last month but this masks a further slowdown in underlying credit growth. Despite the official rhetoric on the need to deleverage, we think the drag on economic activity from this... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) Chinese trade growth surprised to the upside in November, with strong external demand more than offsetting the drag from base effects. That said, domestic demand may not be quite as strong as the... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Nov.) China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that capital outflows continued to be a non-issue last month. This has allowed the PBOC to step back from FX intervention which, over the medium term, should... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Today’s Caixin PMI reading paints a less upbeat picture than the official surveys and suggests that economic activity probably cooled slightly last month. We expect further softness ahead, which will... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Nov.) The official PMIs continued to hold up well this month. But they have been a poor guide to recent trends, failing to reflect the deceleration in economic growth shown on our China Activity Proxy... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
