China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Exports continued to defy US tariffs last month but imports softened in the face of cooling domestic demand. We expect both to weaken in the coming quarters as economic growth slows in China and among... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The latest PMI readings suggest that growth slowed last month. The breakdown points toward weaker exports, though it’s too soon to know if this is due to US tariffs or simply the result of cooling... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Today’s activity and spending data are a mixed bag. On balance though, they do little to change our view that momentum is weakening and that policy easing won’t put a floor beneath growth for some... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Overall credit growth in China stabilised in August but further policy easing will be needed to prevent it from slipping again in the coming months. 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Trade (Aug.) Consumer price inflation picked up last month, as African swine flu led to a jump in pork prices. But with broad price pressures still relatively subdued, it’s still too soon to sound the alarm on... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) The People’s Bank still appears reluctant to deploy its FX reserves in order to support the renminbi. We suspect that it is leaning on state-owned financial institutions to sell foreign assets in its... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The latest survey data suggest that China’s economy continued to come under pressure last month. We expect further weakness ahead despite the shift toward policy easing. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Aug.) Today’s better-than-expected PMI readings suggest that output growth may have edged up last month. But the breakdown of the surveys point to a further weakening in demand, consistent with our view... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The activity and spending data for July all came in below consensus expectations despite surprisingly strong external demand. This highlights the continued strong headwinds to domestic demand from... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Growth in bank lending picked up last month to the fastest pace this year. However, a further slowdown in other forms of credit, including shadow financing, mean that broad credit growth continued to... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s economy slowed last quarter in year-on-year terms after expanding in Q1 at the fastest pace since 2011. Looking ahead, with headwinds from tightening monetary conditions building and... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Today’s higher-than-expected inflation figures reflect a temporary boost from higher oil prices, along with the usual volatility in food prices. If anything, broader price pressures appear to be... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Chinese export growth held steady last month with few signs of much impact from the first round of US tariffs on $34bn worth of Chinese exports, which came into force on 6th July. Import growth jumped... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jul.) A rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves in July suggests that the People’s Bank did not deploy them to defend the renminbi last month. It may do so soon, however, given growing concerns over... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest Caixin manufacturing PMI reading suggests that the sector lost a little momentum in July. We expect further weakness ahead. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jul.) The latest survey data suggest that a weaker renminbi is helping to dampen the impact of US tariffs but that domestic headwinds continued to weigh on economic activity in July. 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
