China Data Response FX Reserves (Apr.) China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to point to very little PBOC action in the FX markets, with muted capital outflows opening the door to renewed efforts to liberalise the capital account. 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The stability of the Caixin PMI last month suggests there is little immediate cause for concern over the health of China’s economy. That said, we do expect growth to start slowing again before long. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Apr.) The official manufacturing PMI points to economic conditions having remained healthy in April. But with headwinds from the property sector and slower credit growth building, we don’t think this... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q1) & Activity & Spending (Mar.) As expected, China’s GDP growth remained uncannily stable last quarter. In practice, growth is almost certainly slower than officials claim and looks to have edged down slightly last quarter. But the... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) There was a seasonal pick-up in new lending last month but underlying growth in broad credit continued to slow and is now at its lowest rate in over a decade. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Lunar New Year effects continued to distort China’s headline trade figures last month. But looking through this seasonal volatility, shipments look to have remained healthy, serving as a reminder that... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data are consistent with our view that cooling price pressures will open the door to further monetary easing in the coming quarters. 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The unofficial PMI declined last month even as the official index rose. This suggests that while the recent easing of pollution controls has led to a rebound in heavy industry, broader economic... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Today’s data are broadly upbeat and suggest that the Chinese economy had a strong start to the year. But we expect growth to begin slowing again in the months ahead as the one-off boost to output from... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) The amount of new loans issued by Chinese banks fell sharply last month. But this happens in February of almost every year. More important is that broader credit growth is now at multi-year lows. 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation rose sharply last month after a fall in January, boosted by a New Year-driven rebound in food price inflation. We think a further rise in food inflation will keep the headline... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The surge in export growth last month largely reflects the shifting timing of Chinese New Year. Of greater significance given the current climate of concern over US protectionism, China’s surplus with... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Feb.) China’s foreign exchange reserve figures suggest that the People’s Bank remained a minor player in the FX market last month. But its pledge to allow a more market-driven exchange rate will be tested... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The survey data don’t offer a clear signal on the strength of factory activity last month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was largely unchanged but the official index dropped sharply. The former is... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Feb.) A sharp decline in the official manufacturing PMI this month suggests that the survey data may finally be responding to the slowdown in growth shown on our China Activity Proxy late last year. And... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Chinese banks issued a record amount of new loans last month. But that happens at the start of almost every year. While the eye-popping new loan numbers will grab the headlines, the more important... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
