China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) While the Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down last month, the survey was conducted too early to tell us much about the extent of the economic damage from the Coronavirus outbreak. The February survey... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) The official PMIs show that manufacturing activity weakened, and non-manufacturing strengthened, in the lead-up to the Coronavirus outbreak. The following months’ PMIs will give insight into how... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Economic activity picked up last month, helping to avert a further slowdown last quarter. But despite the recent uptick in activity, we think it is premature to call the bottom of the current economic... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Growth in outstanding broad credit was unchanged last month as a slowdown in bank lending and direct financing was offset by an easing contraction in shadow credit. With credit growth less responsive... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Headline trade growth surged in December. But this is more a reflection of base and price effects than of current strength. And while the outlook for exports is improving, domestic demand will remain... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Moderating food price inflation took the pressure off consumer price inflation while producer price deflation eased thanks to base effects and an increase in energy prices. The big picture is that... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Dec.) The official foreign exchange reserves figures suggest that the PBOC continued to refrain from direct FX intervention last month on the back of easing trade tensions. With outflows moderating – and... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs ended 2019 higher than where they started the year but we doubt this means the worst is over for China’s economy. While it does appear that export growth is bottoming out... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The activity and spending indicators beat expectations. But retail sales and real estate activity are weaker than the headline figures suggest. And we think growth will resume its downward trend... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Growth in outstanding broad credit was unchanged last month, despite recent monetary loosening by the People’s Bank. This suggests that more aggressive action will be needed to shore up growth. 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Rising pork prices pushed consumer price inflation to its highest level in close to eight years last month. But the pick-up in food inflation will reverse soon and broader demand-side price pressures... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Nov.) Exports continued to languish last month and the pick-up in headline import growth reflects base effects rather than stronger domestic demand. Meanwhile, FX reserves data released over the weekend... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Nov.) The survey data improved across the board last month, hinting at a pick-up in growth momentum. But we doubt this marks the start of a decisive rebound in activity. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) Activity and spending slowed across the board last month, more than reversing the uptick at the end of Q3. With further weakness on the horizon, we think additional policy stimulus is due before long. 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Monetary easing is failing to lift bank loan growth, while fiscal constraints are weighing on broader credit expansion. This should increase pressure on the PBOC to loosen policy more decisively. 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) The contraction in both exports and imports eased more than expected last month. But even if the “Phase One” US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
