The same questions kept coming up in our client briefings on the 2024 outlook and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles them in this latest episode of our weekly podcast. He talks about why economic resilience will be increasingly tested and which DM central banks are likely to cut rates first, but also talks about what could go wrong for our calls in the coming year.
Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory is also on the podcast to explain why the Bank of England won’t be in a hurry to ease policy next year and talk about how immigration is affecting the labour market.
We’re also joined by Tom Ryan, who leads our coverage of the US housing market. Amid signs that a weird moment for the market is coming to an end, Tom talks about the outlook for mortgage rates and prices in a year that’s expected to see some hefty rate cuts from the Fed.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
Your questions about 2024 answered
We held two online Drop-In sessions today to discuss the outlook for 2024 and the risks to our forecasts. (See a recording here.) This Update summarises the answers to several of the questions that we
Fed will need to acknowledge plunging inflation soon
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Bank to set the stage for 2024 rate cuts
Note: We’ll be discussing the Fed, ECB and Bank of England December decisions and the policy outlook for 2024 in an online briefing on Thursday, 14 th December. Click here to register for the 20
What would convince the Bank of England to cut rates?
The key indicators that have usually convinced the Bank of England to cut interest rates suggest the first cut could come in Q1 2024. That said, rates have risen to a lower peak than most models
Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2024 policy outlook
A year of the most aggressive monetary tightening in a generation is expected to end with the major DM banks leaving rates on hold at their December meetings. Following our briefings on the world in...
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