The World in 2024 Chief Economist's Note Seven themes for 2024 Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth... 27th November 2023 Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read Chief Economist's Note 2024: Your most commonly asked questions answered Amid the flurry of questions we've had from clients in the course of briefing them on the 2024 macro and markets outlook, these were the three most commonly asked. 11th December 2023 Global Economics Update Your questions about 2024 answered We held two online Drop-In sessions today to discuss the outlook for 2024 and the risks to our forecasts. (See a recording here .) This Update summarises the answers to several of the questions that... 5th December 2023 · 7 mins read US Economics Update Risks to our 2024 outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding our forecast that GDP will increase by 1.2% next year, but we have a relatively high conviction in our call that core PCE inflation will be very close to... 18th December 2023 · 6 mins read UK Economics Update Lessons from 2023 and forecasts for 2024 Even though we expect the economy to be weaker than the consensus in 2024, we think that lingering constraints on domestic supply will prevent wage growth and services CPI inflation from falling quite... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read Asset Allocation Update We think US equities will keep shining the brightest As the year draws to a close, this note looks back at the recent performance of stock markets across the world and lays out our view of what might happen next year. In short, US equities have largely... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read Climate Economics Update What to watch on the climate front in 2024 As 2023 draws to a close, this Update looks at three key climate themes to watch in 2024. In short, one should look beyond the inevitable climate-related rhetoric in the run-up to looming elections... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read FX Markets Update Five key questions for currency markets in 2024 As the year draws to a close, this Update sets out our answers to five of the most commonly asked questions about currency markets for the coming year. In short, we expect another year of muddling... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read Macro and Market Outlooks Global Economic Outlook Growth, inflation, and rates to be lower than expected We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to... 13th December 2023 · 45 mins read Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read Asset Allocation Outlook The good times for risky assets may continue to roll “Safe” and “risky” assets are both on track for a strong final quarter of the year, and we think next year will deliver more of the same. After all, we think that the main tailwind this quarter –... 11th December 2023 · 21 mins read US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read Europe Economic Outlook Recession and rate cuts The euro-zone will remain in or close to recession in the first half of 2024 as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 12th December 2023 · 30 mins read Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging Paths Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks an unusually large variation in prospects at a country level. Many of the EMs that fared... 12th December 2023 · 27 mins read China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read FX Markets Outlook US dollar strength likely to wane a bit further in 2024 The US dollar has reversed around half of the gains it made from mid-July to end-October amid a sharp fall in US Treasury yields and a general compression of risk premia across markets, leaving the... 13th December 2023 · 23 mins read Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve... 13th December 2023 · 20 mins read Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Another year of sluggish growth Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid... 13th December 2023 · 22 mins read UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read India Economic Outlook Solid growth in run-up to election India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read Canada Economic Outlook Further falls in GDP to trigger interest rate cuts Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all next year. Weak growth and a return in inflation to the 2% target will leave scope for the Bank of... 7th December 2023 · 14 mins read Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read Africa Economic Outlook A tepid recovery Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 7th December 2023 · 21 mins read Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing coming sooner than most expect Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease... 7th December 2023 · 32 mins read Europe Commercial Property Outlook Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests... 8th December 2023 · 35 mins read Drop-In: The Global Economy In 2024 – Key themes/core risks Watch our 5th December briefing on the outlook for the coming year Watch the recording The Capital Economics Weekly Briefing podcast on the world in 2024:
Chief Economist's Note Seven themes for 2024 Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth... 27th November 2023
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about 2024 answered We held two online Drop-In sessions today to discuss the outlook for 2024 and the risks to our forecasts. (See a recording here .) This Update summarises the answers to several of the questions that... 5th December 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Risks to our 2024 outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding our forecast that GDP will increase by 1.2% next year, but we have a relatively high conviction in our call that core PCE inflation will be very close to... 18th December 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons from 2023 and forecasts for 2024 Even though we expect the economy to be weaker than the consensus in 2024, we think that lingering constraints on domestic supply will prevent wage growth and services CPI inflation from falling quite... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think US equities will keep shining the brightest As the year draws to a close, this note looks back at the recent performance of stock markets across the world and lays out our view of what might happen next year. In short, US equities have largely... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update What to watch on the climate front in 2024 As 2023 draws to a close, this Update looks at three key climate themes to watch in 2024. In short, one should look beyond the inevitable climate-related rhetoric in the run-up to looming elections... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Five key questions for currency markets in 2024 As the year draws to a close, this Update sets out our answers to five of the most commonly asked questions about currency markets for the coming year. In short, we expect another year of muddling... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth, inflation, and rates to be lower than expected We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to... 13th December 2023 · 45 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The good times for risky assets may continue to roll “Safe” and “risky” assets are both on track for a strong final quarter of the year, and we think next year will deliver more of the same. After all, we think that the main tailwind this quarter –... 11th December 2023 · 21 mins read
US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession and rate cuts The euro-zone will remain in or close to recession in the first half of 2024 as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 12th December 2023 · 30 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging Paths Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks an unusually large variation in prospects at a country level. Many of the EMs that fared... 12th December 2023 · 27 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
FX Markets Outlook US dollar strength likely to wane a bit further in 2024 The US dollar has reversed around half of the gains it made from mid-July to end-October amid a sharp fall in US Treasury yields and a general compression of risk premia across markets, leaving the... 13th December 2023 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve... 13th December 2023 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Another year of sluggish growth Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid... 13th December 2023 · 22 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
India Economic Outlook Solid growth in run-up to election India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Further falls in GDP to trigger interest rate cuts Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all next year. Weak growth and a return in inflation to the 2% target will leave scope for the Bank of... 7th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A tepid recovery Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 7th December 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing coming sooner than most expect Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease... 7th December 2023 · 32 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests... 8th December 2023 · 35 mins read
