Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re relatively upbeat on the near-term outlook for Mexico, the one country where policy is likely to be loosened. In contrast, the pace of Brazil’s recovery is set to be disappointingly weak. Meanwhile, Argentina will probably remain in recession next year and is likely to flirt with sovereign default.
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