The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two are finely balanced and have not changed our forecasts of steady policy tightening. But a marked escalation of the crisis might tip the balance in favour of later or slower interest rate hikes, especially in the euro-zone.
Drop-In (24th Feb., 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET): Our panel of senior economists will be back online this Thursday to bring you up to date on what the latest Russia-Ukraine crisis developments mean for our 2022 outlook. Register here.
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