Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Tariffs to push Canada into recession We have raised our assumption for the average US tariff rate that Canadian exporters will face, to a level that will likely push the economy into recession. The downturn should be only moderate if, as... 27th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s... 27th March 2025 · 45 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Oil-fuelled growth to mask non-oil slowdown GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will pick up over the next couple of years supported by rising oil and LNG output from the Gulf. However, lower oil prices will result in tighter fiscal... 27th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone money and lending growth continues to rise Data released this morning showed that euro-zone money and lending growth continued to accelerate in February, supporting the case of those at the ECB who would prefer to pause interest rate cuts in... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The protectionist shift in the US will weigh heavily on Mexico’s economy, which at... 26th March 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight... 26th March 2025 · 27 mins read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Export slowdown looms as domestic drags persist Increased US tariffs will exacerbate a broader slowdown in exports. China’s economy will also face continued drags from the property downturn and wider deflationary dynamics. A sizeable fiscal... 26th March 2025 · 16 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Feb. 2025) Stronger orders for primary metals and fabricated metal products in February suggest that tariff effects helped to drive up core durable goods orders last month, while transportation orders also did... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2025) The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high... 26th March 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: Rate cuts and trade uncertainty We expect economic growth across the region to remain subdued, with most economies set to record below-trend and below-consensus growth this year. While lower interest rates will provide some support... 25th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will the bout of EM protests have? The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. It... 25th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to be Gulf’s growth star once again A combination of stronger oil output and a thriving non-oil economy will support stronger growth in the UAE’s economy this year, helping it to retain its crown as the fastest growing economy in the... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) and other surveys for March confirm that the prospect of fiscal stimulus is boosting sentiment in Germany and outweighing concerns about US tariffs for now. But... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with subdued growth outlook in DMs The latest flash PMIs suggest that while economic activity may have picked up a bit in advanced economies towards the end of Q1, the outlook remains fairly bleak. And while inflation seems to finally... 24th March 2025 · 2 mins read
