Treasury insists on no spring Budget despite fears of fiscal rule breach Ruth Gregory, at Capital Economics, said she expects the level of GDP to be 0.7 per cent lower by the end of this year than was predicted at the October Budget. If this weakness persists in future... 16th December 2024 · Financial Times
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2024) China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, despite tailwinds from recent policy easing. Growth still looks on course to pick up this quarter, but the disappointing November data underscores... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Muted price data cements 25bp cut The tame November price data has soothed concerns about a resurgence in price pressures, giving the green light for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week's meeting. 13th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: More rate cuts coming We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as... 13th December 2024 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why is the economy struggling so much? The loss of economic momentum in the second half of the year isn't just due to the Budget but may also be due to the drag from high interest rates lasting longer and a growing restraint from weak... 13th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Oct. 2024) The upside surprises to both manufacturing and wholesale sales in October supports our view that the near-term economic outlook is now better than the Bank of Canada seems to think. It looks likely... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (October 2024) October’s euro-zone industrial production data look much worse without Ireland, where the data are notoriously volatile. The big picture is that the region’s industrial sector remains very weak and we... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Oct. 2024) The 0.1% m/m fall in GDP in October is the second such decline in a row and means there is every chance that the economy went backwards in Q4 as a whole. Talk of a recession still feels a bit... 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Tankan (Q4 2024) The mediocre increase in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that the activity is unlikely to rebound meaningfully this quarter, following a slowdown in Q3. The... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
