India Economics Weekly Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will begin cutting the repo rate in April The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today highlights its unease at the current rate of headline inflation. Admittedly, the lowering of the cash... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Reserve Bank of India Policy Announcement (Dec.) 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Despite sluggish activity, RBA will only cut in May With Australian Q3 GDP data underperforming expectations, markets now think the RBA could begin its easing cycle as soon as April. To be sure, it is certainly the case that private demand showed few... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Lower interest rates are yet to do much to spur the economy, but green shoots are emerging, with the timely activity surveys picking up and the newly-announced mini-fiscal stimulus expected to boost... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
ECB Watch “Dovish” 25bp rate cut likely next week While there is a strong case for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50bp cut next week, a majority of the Governing Council seems to prefer 25bp, which would bring the... 5th December 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Focus Counting the cost of a crackdown on immigration The incoming Trump administration’s proposed crackdown on immigration means labour force growth is likely to slow toward zero. That would pull down potential GDP growth to less than 2% and labour... 4th December 2024 · 16 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Nov. 2024) The fall in the ISM services index to 52.1 in November is not too concerning, given it was driven partly by a slump in the supplier deliveries index, but it does lend some support to our view that GDP... 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q3 2024) GDP growth remained sluggish in the third quarter, adding to the case for the RBA to start easing policy before long. 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2024) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP in Q3 will add to the central bank’s concerns that the economy is running too hot. Alongside rising inflation and the sell-off in local financial markets... 3rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Nov. 2024) November’s batch of PMIs showed an increase all of the Gulf economies, although there remained some underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s PMI improved a touch as... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q3 2024) South Africa’s economy recorded a surprise contraction of 0.3% q/q in Q3, but that was largely due to a steep decline in agricultural output. The rest of the economy held up much better and we expect... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry 1733929200 What’s the outlook for struggling German auto manufacturers? How big a threat do Donald Trump and Chinese imports present?
Global Economics Update Global industry in the doldrums even with China boost The latest PMIs show that while China’s manufacturing sector is benefiting from a fiscal boost, industry in most of the rest of the world continues to struggle. With demand weak and little disruption... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
