US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.6% m/m decline in February’s durable goods orders was principally due to a 31.1% m/m drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft orders component. Nevertheless, even putting that... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) The 0.7% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in February confirms that industry is recovering from a very weak period that was affected by one-off drags in the auto and petroleum refining... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget not as expansionary as it looks The Coalition government’s Budget for 2019/20 promises additional tax cuts while still achieving a budget surplus. Labor will probably win next month’s federal election and we suspect it will at least... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the rest of the world cope with 2% growth in China? Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.) The slight pick-up in Swiss inflation in March does not change our view that the headline rate will fall back into negative territory in mid-2019 and that core price pressures will remain extremely... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in March, but this shouldn’t raise any alarms. After all, the reading hit a 14-month high in February and overall, the recent PMIs suggest that the manufacturing... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will soon have to cut rates The Reserve Bank of Australia sounded more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. With the full impact of the housing downturn on economic activity yet to be felt, we think the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of Rosstat’s latest revisions? The strength of Russian GDP growth in Q4 (and the upwards revisions to the historical data) has caused controversy. But overall, we think the new GDP figures probably bear a closer resemblance to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing improves at the end of Q1 The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI at the end of last quarter suggests that the slowdown in EM industrial production growth may have bottomed out. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 55.3 in March, from 54.2, offers some reassurance that the US factory sector isn’t following its European counterpart off a cliff, although the... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing downturn starting to bottom out? It’s still far too early to say for sure, but March’s manufacturing PMIs offer some hope that the worst is over for the downturn in global manufacturing, at least outside the euro-zone. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The decline in underlying retail sales in February was offset by upward revisions to previous months, but real consumption growth still appears to have slowed sharply in the first quarter. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown to be steeper than most expect Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in three years in Q4 of last year, but our GDP Tracker points to a renewed slowdown at the start of 2019. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Stockbuilding ahead of Brexit undoubtedly flattered the manufacturing PMI in March. Nonetheless, the manufacturing sector should support GDP growth in Q1. And the increase in the employment and new... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.), Final Mfg PMIs (Mar.) March’s decline in euro-zone headline inflation was largely due to the timing of Easter, so the continued weakness in the manufacturing PMIs will be a bigger worry for the ECB. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in March, suggesting that power cuts and soft demand weighed on the sector. Though the measure has a tendency to overstate the weakness of manufacturing... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
