Asia Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt policy easing We expect GDP growth across Emerging Asia to be very weak this year, with a number of countries set to grow at their weakest rates since the global financial crisis. A key drag will come from falling... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil producers to falter as Egypt strengthens We hold below-consensus growth forecasts for the Gulf States, where oil output cuts and renewed fiscal austerity will result in a sharp slowdown. We are, by contrast, relatively optimistic about the... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Feb.) The initial estimate of GDP was once again stronger than the survey evidence had suggested, providing a reassuring sign that the economy has weathered the Brexit chaos and overseas slowdown well. But... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Signs of stagnation across Scandinavia The latest indicators have added to the evidence that economic growth in much of Scandinavia slowed at the start of 2019. Indeed, after strong finishes to 2018, surveys suggest that GDP in Sweden... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) Although core machinery orders rebounded in February, they are still likely to have fallen across the quarter. That suggests that business investment fell in Q1 and we think that it will remain weak... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys add to evidence of labour market slowdown The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that investment growth is set to slow and provide further evidence that labour market conditions are no longer tightening. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) Strong PMIs across the Gulf were driven by higher oil prices rather than a sustained economic recovery. We expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter, though spending on the 2020 Expo will... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Private Sector Production (Feb.) The weak private sector production data from Sweden for February suggests that the economy is likely to have flat-lined at best in Q1. With core price pressures expected to remain subdued, we continue... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in March, even if, as we suspect, it rose slightly as food inflation continues to pick up. The RBI will almost certainly follow up its cumulative 50bp of... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic slowdown set to continue The data releases this week strengthen our belief that the apparent weakness of GDP growth in the first quarter won’t just be a temporary blip. We expect a continued economic slowdown to convince the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Manufacturing woes spreading to Switzerland The sharp drop in the manufacturing PMI in Switzerland in March provides the clearest sign yet that the woes in euro-zone industry have spread over the border. Meanwhile, the manufacturing and... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Another Brexit delay looms A no deal Brexit still can’t be ruled out next Friday 12th April, but the risk has been significantly reduced by the Prime Minister asking the EU for another delay until 30th June 2019. We suspect the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly More weak data ahead of April ECB meeting This week brought more disappointing data for the euro-zone. The ECB is unlikely to respond by loosening policy further at its meeting next Wednesday, but we think that it won’t be long before the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
