China Economics Update Service sector weakens as consumers hold back The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data released today points toward softer service sector activity last quarter on the back of slower property sales and weaker consumer spending. We expect... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus This time won’t be different We believe that the downturn in Australia’s housing market will become by far the deepest and longest on record. By curbing dwellings investment, consumption and bank lending, we think it will result... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4) Economic growth in Korea was surprisingly strong last quarter, but with both domestic and external headwinds to growth likely to mount this year, we doubt this strength will last. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Growth edged down last quarter, with the slowdown on the official GDP figures corroborated by other data. Conditions improved somewhat in December, but we expect the uptick in industrial output and... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households upbeat, but still price sensitive Japanese households are more positive about current economic conditions than they have been for many years but they report still being highly price sensitive, and their worries about the outlook have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 1.1% surge in manufacturing output in December, which admittedly was boosted by some temporary factors, suggests that US is not (yet) succumbing to the global industrial slowdown. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to guide interest rates lower, 2017 GDP revised The liquidity injection by the PBOC this week was the largest on record. But it was mainly intended to manage the usual cash crunch ahead of Chinese New Year rather than loosen monetary conditions... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business cycle indicators point to slowdown risks With a host of indicators suggesting that GDP growth will weaken, we think that the risks of a pronounced slowdown are larger than either the Bank of Canada or the consensus assumes. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sentiment, not fundamentals, weighing on activity UK politics remains in meltdown. And there are plenty of signs that this is weighing on sentiment. But beneath this, the economy is well placed to benefit if and when the Brexit uncertainty lifts. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Growth likely to slow further in 2019 The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s slump means that retail sales volumes fell in Q4 as a whole. Unless a Brexit deal is signed soon, there is unlikely to be much of a rebound in Q1 2019 either. That said, if a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus won’t prevent further economic slowdown Officials have stepped up policy support in response to faltering domestic momentum. But with credit now growing at the weakest pace in more than a decade, the economy will not stabilise until at... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read