Canada Economics Weekly Weak November a sign of things to come At Davos this week, Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated that the Bank of Canada will remain data dependent with respect to the pace of future interest rate hikes. With GDP set to have contracted in... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Russian activity data for December suggests that the economy weakened at the end of last year. Even so, GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was probably a little stronger than it was in Q3... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown worsens, nervous MPCs A raft of weak activity and survey data released this week reinforces our relatively downbeat view on the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe this year. Slowing growth seems to be worrying some... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peace in Mindanao and a less hawkish Fed Peace in the restive southern province of Mindanao, the second biggest island in the Philippines, could lead to big economic gains for the island itself, but is unlikely to have much impact on overall... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya debt increases fragilities, SA inflation supports dovish view Given Kenya’s fragile external position, plans for more foreign currency debt will increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria showed no sign... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s further fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index supports other evidence that economic growth in Germany has stalled. 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Middle-income squeeze weighing on consumption On paper, China’s rebalancing is going swimmingly, with the consumption share of GDP growth jumping last year to its highest level in almost two decades. But this is hard to square with broader data... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit clouds the outlook for consumers The slump in retail sales volumes in December is not too worrying given that it seems to have largely reflected consumers bringing forward Christmas purchases in order to take advantage of ‘Black... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Growth will pick up, despite faltering Nigeria After a very weak 2018, we expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen this year. The major oil exporters will, of course, suffer the effects of lower oil prices and our growth forecasts... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run We have long thought that the world economy would slow significantly in 2019, but the Flash PMIs for January provide an early sign that growth may be deteriorating more quickly than even we had... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is behind the global slowdown? On the face of it, the slowdowns currently seen in many countries appear attributable to a range of country-specific factors. But could we be missing the wood for the trees? Although there is little... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack End-2018 total returns soften to 7.5% y/y Indicators suggest that UK economic growth slowed towards the end of 2018, in part due to households and businesses delaying spending in response to Brexit-related uncertainty. This is likely to... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The further fall in the Composite PMI for the euro-zone in January will not prompt the ECB to change its statement this afternoon. But it will heighten concerns about the severity of the slowdown and... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Combined with the recent fall in Reuters’ manufacturing Tankan, the slump in the manufacturing PMI in January suggests that the growth outlook for Japan has deteriorated. While we still expect... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) GDP growth in the Philippines was virtually unchanged in Q4 and we expect it to settle at around 6.0% in 2019, falling short of both government targets and the consensus view. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read