Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation remained flat in February and will probably start to slow over the coming months due to falling energy prices and moderating underlying price pressures. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers unfazed With just eight days to go until Brexit and uncertainty higher than ever, it is reassuring that households increased their spending on the high street at a decent rate in February. Admittedly, the... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Feb.) With just eight days to go until Brexit and MPs seemingly losing their heads, it is reassuring that in February households kept calm and carried on spending. The health of the public finances in... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) February’s activity data suggest that the Polish economy has, so far at least, shrugged off the recent weakness in Germany and continued to grow at a rapid pace in Q1. 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q4 2018) We think that the slowdown in annual growth in the fourth quarter will set the tone for growth to remain subdued throughout 2019. But as long as the labour market remains tight and underlying... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil price boost for the Gulf to prove fleeting The recovery in oil prices since the start of this year is only likely to provide brief respite for the Gulf economies. Brent crude briefly touched $68pb this month, marking a 30% rise from the trough... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth slows further in early 2019 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy softened in the second half of 2018 and weakened further in the first two months of this year. The slowdown has been mild so far, with growth... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Explaining weak investment and strong employment The current divergence between weak business investment growth and strong employment growth won’t last as it’s largely due to the uncertainty caused by Brexit. If there’s a no deal Brexit, both will... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Given the weak start to the year, it looks like Russian GDP growth is shaping up to be weaker in Q1 than in Q4. But February’s activity data were more encouraging, and it does at least appear that... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth faltered in early 2019 Retail sales growth picked up in January, but activity data across the economy as a whole were weak at the start of 2019. Growth will probably remain subdued over Q1, but then strengthen later in the... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn becoming a major drag We believe that the downturn in the housing market will have a larger negative impact on the economy than most believe and have lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.5%. The upshot is that the labour... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee rally unlikely to last The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany stuck in the slow lane A slow start to the year, combined with a deterioration in prospects for both export growth and household consumption, has prompted us to cut our forecast for economic growth in Germany to only 0.5%... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply in the final quarter of last year, and although we expect growth to pick up a little over the coming quarters, a combination of tighter fiscal and monetary... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
