Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow recovery GDP growth in Latin America should strengthen in the coming quarters, but the pace of the recovery will be weaker than most expect. Fiscal and monetary policy are likely to be tightened and external... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More cautious, less confident At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council of the ECB will have little option but to acknowledge that the downside risks to its forecasts have increased further since it last met in... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK political chaos not a big threat to global economy To the outside world, it looks as though the UK is descending into chaos over Brexit. But while it is true that the UK political situation is in meltdown, its economy is holding up reasonably well... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn will force RBA to cut rates We think that 2019 will be the year in which previous excesses in Australia’s housing market will catch up with the economy. We believe that the deepening housing downturn will become a far bigger... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Global slowdown adds to domestic headwinds Weaker global growth and the stronger dollar will cause a marked slowdown in US export growth this year. Alongside the domestic headwinds from the fading fiscal stimulus and tighter monetary policy... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the economy get a Brexit boost? The overwhelming defeat of the Brexit deal in Parliament last night increases the chances of the economy performing along the lines of our “fudge and delay” scenario, in which GDP growth rebounds in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: why trade liberalisation would help Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro seems to be pushing one of his campaign pledges to liberalise trade and, if successful, history suggests that this might plausibly add as much as 0.75%-pts to... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Downside risks are mounting The euro-zone has shifted down a gear but has not (yet) gone into reverse. Italy probably experienced a technical recession last year and Germany only narrowly avoided one. More importantly, the... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weakest growth in a decade, rate cuts by year-end Emerging Asia this year is likely to grow at its weakest rate since the global financial crisis. Although fiscal policy should help to support growth in most of the region, this is likely to be offset... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slight slowdown in Q4 November retail sales figures added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy slowed a touch in Q4. But economic growth was robust by recent standards, and we think that conditions will improve in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update If the Brexit fog clears, will investment rebound? If a Brexit deal is secured, the release of pent-up demand will help investment activity. But, with interest rates rising and valuations looking stretched in many sectors, it’s unlikely that there... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Tightening remains a distant prospect The Bank is getting a bit more concerned about the impact of prolonged monetary easing on financial stability. But with economic activity and inflation set to fall short of its forecasts yet again... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) The stagnation in machinery orders in November suggests that business investment wasn’t the main driver of the likely rebound in Q4 GDP. But we still expect capital spending to rise at a strong pace... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Russia forecasts Low oil prices, cuts to oil production and the central bank’s hawkish shift have prompted us to nudge our 2019 growth forecast for Russia down to 2.0% (from 2.3%), although that still leaves us a bit... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of GDP for 2018, and comments by the Federal Statistics Office, suggest that Germany narrowly avoided a recession last year. But this is of limited comfort: the bigger picture... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read