Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex rally won’t last Indian equities scaled new highs this week, with the Sensex surpassing 39,000 for the first time on Tuesday. But we doubt that the recent rally will be sustained. From a valuations perspective, Indian... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data were stronger than expected and suggest that German GDP rose in Q1. But that is largely due to a sharp increase in construction, which is very unlikely to be... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Capacity constraints set to loosen again soon The Bank of Japan’s claims that capacity shortages were the most pronounced since the early 1990s last year jar with the slowdown in economic activity and the fact that underlying inflation remains... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labor’s Budget alternative not so stimulatory either This week both the government and the opposition laid out their fiscal plans if they were to win the next election, with both sides promising significant income tax cuts. But given the negative... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Swiss pivot towards Asia reduces reliance on euro-zone The Swiss economy will not be immune to weak growth in the euro-zone over the coming years, but rising demand from Asia and the increased importance of sectors that are relatively insensitive to the... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy close to stalling We suspect that GDP increased by only 0.1% in the first quarter of this year. The divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors has, if anything, increased, and this in turn has... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Indonesia election unlikely to lead to stronger growth Although neither candidate in Indonesia’s presidential election has unveiled policy proposals that are likely to address the long-standing constraints which are holding back growth, another term for... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Divergent surveys offer limited hope World GDP growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q1, but the latest business surveys suggest that growth has bottomed out in some parts of the world at least. March’s unchanged global manufacturing... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the rest of the world cope with 2% growth in China? Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Slowdown will force Fed to reverse course We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% to 2.0% this year and only 1.4% in 2020. That weakness should convince the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp, with the first... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The give and take of Brexit The uncertainty caused by Brexit is helping some parts of the economy and hindering others, but as a whole the economy isn’t doing too badly. An apparent surge in stockbuilding ahead of the original... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Mar.) With the UK entering the most intense phase of Brexit uncertainty (so far!), the gloomy tone of March’s Markit/CIPS services survey is perhaps not too surprising. While we suspect the survey is... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bouteflexit: what next for Algeria? The decision by Algeria’s President Bouteflika to step down is likely to result in a long and potentially messy transition. At the very least, economic growth will weaken and the chances of a severe... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s retail sales data suggest that household spending growth picked up a bit in Q1. But the Composite PMI, together with other surveys, suggests that GDP growth might have slowed. 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
